聂靖璇, 王晗, 刘屹, 高寒冰, 罗曼, 祁生文. 2017: 北京市水资源安全水平动态模型的构建与评估. 工程地质学报, 25(2): 565-573. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017.02.037
    引用本文: 聂靖璇, 王晗, 刘屹, 高寒冰, 罗曼, 祁生文. 2017: 北京市水资源安全水平动态模型的构建与评估. 工程地质学报, 25(2): 565-573. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017.02.037
    NIE Jingxuan, WANG Han, LIU Yi, GAO Hanbing, LUO Man, QI Shengwen. 2017: A DYNAMIC MODEL OF WATER SECURITY LEVEL IN BEIJING. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 25(2): 565-573. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017.02.037
    Citation: NIE Jingxuan, WANG Han, LIU Yi, GAO Hanbing, LUO Man, QI Shengwen. 2017: A DYNAMIC MODEL OF WATER SECURITY LEVEL IN BEIJING. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 25(2): 565-573. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017.02.037

    北京市水资源安全水平动态模型的构建与评估

    A DYNAMIC MODEL OF WATER SECURITY LEVEL IN BEIJING

    • 摘要: 随着我国经济的不断发展以及人口的不断增长,水资源短缺状况变得愈发严峻,许多地区都面临着水资源危机。为了解决这一问题并给出对水资源安全情况的动态评估方案,本文首先对水资源进行定性分析,根据国家统计局上的分类将其分为消费水平及供给水平两部分,再对每个部分进行更加详细的分类,随后选取相应数据进行具体分析,拟合得出其随时间变化的函数。由此建立微分方程组,从动态的角度综合考量各指标及互相间的关系,进而得出评估一个地区是否能够提供满足其需求的水资源的数学模型同时进行假设检验。最后,选取北京市作为研究对象,应用该模型进行水资源安全评估,得到北京市在未来10a左右的时间内水资源安全情况的趋势,同时给出相应的政策建议。

       

      Abstract: As the constant development of China's economy and population increases, the water shortage is becoming more and more severe. Many regions are now facing water resource crisis. In order to solve this problem and offer a dynamic evaluating scheme, this paper makes qualitative analysis of water resources and separates it into two parts——"supply" and "demand", according to the categories on National Bureau of Statistics of China. And then, it makes more specific categories in each part and uses the data to get fitted graphs and equations. Then, it establishes differential equations and analyzes the collected data to develop a dynamic mathematical model of water resource to assess whether a particular area has the ability to meet the demand of water usage. And we also use past data and facts to test our hypothesis. At last, we choose Beijing as the object of study, use this model to assess the water security level and obtain the future situation of water resource in Beijing in the following 10 years. Beijing is the capital of China, situating in the north of China. It is somehow different because the government is running a "south water to north" plan to help Beijing offer enough water to its citizens. Also, in 2008 Beijing is the host city of the 29th Olympic Games. So this influences the industrial water emission, which we explain in the paper in detail. Based on the analysis, we put forward two policy proposals to solve the problem of water crisis: either to introduce new policy to restrict the water sewage or to increase the water input from other regions.

       

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