Abstract:
Natural outcrop of groundwater in karst mountainous countryside is an important water supply source. Its flow dynamic changes in the degree of security of water supply play a decisive role. This paper takes Yantang springs as an example and analyzes the spring flow rate. Using the change law of the SARIMA model, it established a fitting prediction model. The analysis results show that the Yantang springs flow has seasonal changes over the years. Fitting and predicted results show that SARIMA model is applicable to short-term prediction with high accuracy. But its precision is reduced for long-term forecast. Between the measured value, it is still in the 95% of the predicted range, which indicates that the model can be used for short-term forecast. The long-term predicted results can provide reference for natural outcrop of groundwater development and utilization.