付圣, 陈丽霞, 黎丰收, 徐勇, 连志鹏, 翁振瑜. 2017: 不同重现期区域滑坡灾害危险性定量评价. 工程地质学报, 25(s1): 309-315. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017.s1.050
    引用本文: 付圣, 陈丽霞, 黎丰收, 徐勇, 连志鹏, 翁振瑜. 2017: 不同重现期区域滑坡灾害危险性定量评价. 工程地质学报, 25(s1): 309-315. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017.s1.050
    FU Sheng, CHEN Lixia, LI Fengshou, XU Yong, LIAN Zhipeng, WENG Zhenyu. 2017: QUANTITATIVE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR LANDSLIDES AT DIFFERENT RECURRENCE AND VOLUME SCENARIOS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 25(s1): 309-315. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017.s1.050
    Citation: FU Sheng, CHEN Lixia, LI Fengshou, XU Yong, LIAN Zhipeng, WENG Zhenyu. 2017: QUANTITATIVE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR LANDSLIDES AT DIFFERENT RECURRENCE AND VOLUME SCENARIOS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 25(s1): 309-315. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017.s1.050

    不同重现期区域滑坡灾害危险性定量评价

    QUANTITATIVE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR LANDSLIDES AT DIFFERENT RECURRENCE AND VOLUME SCENARIOS

    • 摘要: 区域滑坡灾害危险性定量评价是实现灾害风险分析的重要环节,如何在缺少灾害驱动诱因信息的条件下实现危险性概率时空量化是本文的研究目的。以我国鄂西南山区渔洋关镇滑坡灾害为例,论文综合空间概率、时间概率和规模概率实现了大比例尺小区域灾害危险性概率评价。论文通过分析坡度、高程、坡向、坡面形态、斜坡结构、岩土体工程地质特性、断层、河流和公路等9种滑坡致灾因子,采用证据权模型进行空间概率分析,成功率为84%,预测率为74%,实现空间概率模拟;基于泊松分布假设,计算了不同重现期(5a、10a、20a和50a)的滑坡时间概率;以滑坡发生规模与频率的幂律关系求解不同体积的(5104m3、10104m3)规模概率,并实现了不同滑坡规模、不同重现期条件下滑坡危险性区划制图。渔洋关镇未来10a内发生5104m3和10104m3滑坡的高值概率分布为0.2~0.3,0.1~0.2,主要集中在渔洋河两岸城市建设区;随着重现期的增长,灾害危险性概率分别提升至0.5~0.6,0.3~0.4,空间进一步扩大至洞湾、虎头脑和三房坪等地;结论可为城镇土地利用规划提供科学支持。

       

      Abstract: Quantitative assessment of regional hazard is an important item of risk analysis. In this paper, it aims to realize the spatial-temporal probability when induced factors are unavailable. For the Yuyangguan county, in the southwest Hubei province, China, we achieved landslide hazard probability at large scale combining the spatial probability, temporal and exceedance probability. We obtained the spatial probability of landslide-occurrence by Weights of Evidence model based on 9 indicators, including slope, elevation, aspect, plan curvature, lithology, et al.,with success rate 0.84 and prediction rate 0.74. Based on the assumption of a Poisson distribution, we obtained temporal probability for four return periods(5, 10, 20 and 50 years).Using the statistics of landslide magnitude and frequency, the exceedance probability was achieved for two volume scenarios(50000 cubic meters, 100, 000 cubic meters).Lastly, we obtained landslide hazard maps for four periods, from 5 to 50 years, and for landslide two volume scenarios(AL 50000m3, and AL 100000m3). The results showed that in ten years return period, landslide probability would be 0.2-0.3 and 0.1-0.2 respectively at two volume scenarios, mainly concentrate at the urban construction areas along both sides of Yuyangguan river. With the increase of recurrence period, the probability of landslide hazard would increase to 0.5-0.6, 0.3-0.4,with the affected area extended to Dongwan, Hutounao and Sanfangping. The conclusion can provide scientific support for urban construction in mountainous towns.

       

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