苏生瑞, 周阳, 周泽华, 马洪生. 2019: 基于EW-AHP和未确知测度理论的崩塌危险性评价. 工程地质学报, 27(3): 577-584. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-221
    引用本文: 苏生瑞, 周阳, 周泽华, 马洪生. 2019: 基于EW-AHP和未确知测度理论的崩塌危险性评价. 工程地质学报, 27(3): 577-584. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-221
    SU Shengrui, ZHOU Yang, ZHOU Zehua, MA Hongsheng. 2019: HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF COLLAPSE USING EW-AHP AND UNASCERTAINED MEASURE THEORY. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(3): 577-584. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-221
    Citation: SU Shengrui, ZHOU Yang, ZHOU Zehua, MA Hongsheng. 2019: HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF COLLAPSE USING EW-AHP AND UNASCERTAINED MEASURE THEORY. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(3): 577-584. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-221

    基于EW-AHP和未确知测度理论的崩塌危险性评价

    HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF COLLAPSE USING EW-AHP AND UNASCERTAINED MEASURE THEORY

    • 摘要: 危险性评价和预测是崩塌灾害防治工作的重要内容。为了解决传统危险性评价中指标权重确定方法的不足以及影响因素的不确定性,本文以G4217线汶川-理县段公路沿线发育的崩塌为例,据其特有的地质环境条件,选取坡向、坡度等12项影响因子作为崩塌危险性评价指标,并建立了危险性分级标准。将熵权法(EW)和层次分析法(AHP)耦合在一起,确定了崩塌影响因子的权重,采用基于EW-AHP和未确知测度理论的综合评价模型,对研究区内20个崩塌进行危险性评价,并与现场调查结果和熵权法(EW)的评价结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明:该模型的评价结果更符合实际情况,评价方法合理有效,可为今后崩塌危险性预测提供新思路。

       

      Abstract: Hazard assessment and prediction are the important contents of prevention and control of disasters. This paper attempts to solve the shortcomings of the method for determining the weight of indicators in traditional hazard assessment and the uncertainty of influencing factors. It takes the collapses in Wenchuan-Lixian highway of G4217 line as an example. Twelve factors including slope and aspect are selected as indicators of collapse hazard assessment. Hazard grading standards are established according to its unique geological environment conditions. The entropy weight method and analytical hierarchy process are coupled to determine the weights of the factors affecting collapse. A comprehensive evaluation model is established using EW-AHP and unascertained measure theory. Hazard assessment is carried out for 20 collapses in the study area and compared with the results of the field survey and assessment results using EW. Results show that the assessment results of the model are more in line with the actual situation and assessment method is reasonable and effective. It can provide a new idea for the prediction of the hazard of collapse in the future.

       

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