仉义星, 兰恒星, 李郎平, 伍宇明, 陈志超, 陈俊辉. 2019: 综合统计模型和物理模型的地质灾害精细评估——以福建省龙山社区为例. 工程地质学报, 27(3): 608-622. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-270
    引用本文: 仉义星, 兰恒星, 李郎平, 伍宇明, 陈志超, 陈俊辉. 2019: 综合统计模型和物理模型的地质灾害精细评估——以福建省龙山社区为例. 工程地质学报, 27(3): 608-622. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-270
    ZHANG Yixing, LAN Hengxing, LI Langping, WU Yuming, CHEN Zhichao, CHEN Junhui. 2019: COMBINING STATISTICAL MODEL AND PHYSICAL MODEL FOR REFINED ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTER-A CASE STUDY OF LONGSHAN COMMUNITY IN FUJIAN PROVINCE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(3): 608-622. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-270
    Citation: ZHANG Yixing, LAN Hengxing, LI Langping, WU Yuming, CHEN Zhichao, CHEN Junhui. 2019: COMBINING STATISTICAL MODEL AND PHYSICAL MODEL FOR REFINED ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTER-A CASE STUDY OF LONGSHAN COMMUNITY IN FUJIAN PROVINCE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(3): 608-622. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-270

    综合统计模型和物理模型的地质灾害精细评估——以福建省龙山社区为例

    COMBINING STATISTICAL MODEL AND PHYSICAL MODEL FOR REFINED ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTER-A CASE STUDY OF LONGSHAN COMMUNITY IN FUJIAN PROVINCE

    • 摘要: 地质灾害易发性和危险性评价对象相同但评价内容有差异,即两者表达地质灾害的时间、空间和强度信息各有不同。本文将崩塌滑坡易发性中的统计模型和危险性评价中的物理模型进行结合,综合统计模型客观预测空间位置信息的优点以及物理模型模拟包含地质灾害发生机制的优势,弥补了区域统计模型无法预测灾害强度信息的不足,也对物理模型模拟的空间位置进行了有效的控制和修正,进而完成区域崩塌滑坡的易发性和危险性等级综合分析,实现对区域崩塌滑坡潜在高风险位置的精细评估。本文以福建省福鼎市龙山社区为例,利用野外获取的高清影像、地形、钻孔和地质灾害等数据,通过综合统计模型评价和物理模型危险性评估,完成潜在高风险位置的精细化分析。研究结果表明:需要进行重点排查治理的区域约占社区附近山体总面积的26.92%;研究区域内需要进行集中排查与治理的区域有5个,其中3个区域需要进行重点治理,其潜在高风险区域与野外地质灾害调查区域隐患点吻合;5个高风险区域直接对180幢左右楼房(约360余户居民)的安全构成威胁,该评估将野外调研中划定的大范围高风险区域精细化处理,并验证了该评价方法体系的可行性。该评价方法体系为区域崩塌滑坡地质灾害精细化排查和治理提供了工作思路和指导。

       

      Abstract: The evaluation targets of geological hazard susceptibility and risk assessment are the same but the evaluation contents including time, space and intensity information of geological disasters are different. This paper combines the statistical model in the susceptibility with the physical model in the risk assessment on collapse landslides, and combines the advantages of statistical model predicting spatial location information objectively with the advantages of physical model simulation including geological disaster occurrence mechanisms. It makes up for the insufficiency of regional statistical model predicting the disaster intensity information. It also effectively controls or corrects the spatial position of the physical model simulation. Then a comprehensive analysis is completed on the susceptibility and risk level of the collapse and landslide, which achieves a refined assessment of the potential high-risk location of the regional collapse and landslide. This paper takes the Longshan community in Fuding County, Fujian Province as an example. It uses data from high-definition images, terrain, boreholes and geological disasters acquired in the field. With the combination of statistical model and physical model, the refined evaluation of potential high-risk locations is completed. The research results show that:the area that needs to be focused on governance is about 26.92% of the total area of the mountain near the community. There are five areas in the community that require centralized investigation and governance. Three of them need to be focused on key governance. The potential high-risk areas coincide with the hidden danger points in the investigation area. The five high-risk areas directly threaten the safety of 180 buildings(about 360 householders). Refining the large-scale high-risk areas is delineated in field research. The feasibility of the evaluation method system is verified. The evaluation method system provides working ideas and guidance for the refined investigation and governance of regional collapse and landslide disasters.

       

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