黄健, 李桥, 巨能攀, 许强, 王昌明. 2019: 基于主控因子分析与GM-IAGA-WNN联合模型的平推式滑坡位移预测研究——以垮梁子滑坡为例. 工程地质学报, 27(4): 862-872. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-283
    引用本文: 黄健, 李桥, 巨能攀, 许强, 王昌明. 2019: 基于主控因子分析与GM-IAGA-WNN联合模型的平推式滑坡位移预测研究——以垮梁子滑坡为例. 工程地质学报, 27(4): 862-872. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-283
    HUANG Jian, LI Qiao, JU Nengpan, XU Qiang, WANG Changming. 2019: DISPLACEMENT PREDICTION OF TRANSLATIONAL LANDSLIDE BASED ON ANSLYSIS OF MAJOR FACTORS AND GM-IAGA-WNN MODEL——A CASE STUDY OF KUALIANGZI LANDSLIDE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(4): 862-872. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-283
    Citation: HUANG Jian, LI Qiao, JU Nengpan, XU Qiang, WANG Changming. 2019: DISPLACEMENT PREDICTION OF TRANSLATIONAL LANDSLIDE BASED ON ANSLYSIS OF MAJOR FACTORS AND GM-IAGA-WNN MODEL——A CASE STUDY OF KUALIANGZI LANDSLIDE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(4): 862-872. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-283

    基于主控因子分析与GM-IAGA-WNN联合模型的平推式滑坡位移预测研究——以垮梁子滑坡为例

    DISPLACEMENT PREDICTION OF TRANSLATIONAL LANDSLIDE BASED ON ANSLYSIS OF MAJOR FACTORS AND GM-IAGA-WNN MODEL——A CASE STUDY OF KUALIANGZI LANDSLIDE

    • 摘要: 滑坡位移预测模型是滑坡预警系统建立的核心,而模型可靠性与精确性关键在于主控因子的选取与基础理论模型的构建。学者们通过大量滑坡实例研究,已取得了诸多成果,但是由于滑坡位移变化具有强烈的个性特征及趋势发展的不确定性问题,在多因子联合作用下的位移预测模型尚有不足之处。本文以西南地区普遍存在的平推式滑坡——垮梁子滑坡为研究对象,结合前人已有的研究成果,综合考虑坡体内外各项影响因子,利用灰色关联度与相关性分析对坡体变形主控因子进行优化筛选。以此为基础,提出一种基于GM(1,1)灰色模型与改进型自适应遗传算法(IAGA)进行优化的小波神经网络(WNN)联合预测模型构建方案。通过对垮梁子滑坡历时5年的监测数据挖掘分析,得知滑坡变形受累计降雨、渗压、地下水位及土体含水率影响显著,预测结果与实际监测比较吻合。相较于传统BP神经网络模型、小波神经网络模型和未优化遗传算法-小波神经网络联合模型,该联合模型具有更好的稳定性与精度优势,在滑坡预警预报研究中具有良好的应用前景。

       

      Abstract: Prediction model in landslide displacement is the key part for building landslide early warning system. The reliability and accuracy of prediction model mainly depend on the main controlling factors and the basic theoretical model. Researchers have already made a great achievement on the displacement prediction models according to practical cases. However, insufficient understanding due to multi-factors influence on landslide movement still exist, because of the strong individual feature and complex tendency forecasting in landslide movement. Kualiangzi landslide, a typical type of translational landslides in Southwest of China, is selected in this paper to make a deep research based on previous data collection. Grey relational analysis and correlation coefficient analysis are used to ensure the main controlling factors influencing landslide movement. A model combining GM(1, 1) grey model and the wavelet neural network optimization(WNN)model optimized by the improved adaptive genetic algorithm(IAGA) is presented. Through mining and analyzing the monitoring data of Kualiangzi landslide for five years, the results show that landslide movement is influenced by the accumulative rainfall, osmotic pressure, groundwater table and soil moisture content. The predicted results are in good agreement with the real-time monitoring data. After comparative analysis, the results show that in terms of the stability and accuracy, this model are better than the models of traditional BP neural network, wavelet neural network and GA-WNN. The new model has a good application prospects in the field of landslide early warning and forecasting.

       

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