陈学军, 陈李洁, 宋宇, 毕鹏雁. 2019: 熵权-正态云模型岩溶塌陷预测分析. 工程地质学报, 27(6): 1389-1394. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-347
    引用本文: 陈学军, 陈李洁, 宋宇, 毕鹏雁. 2019: 熵权-正态云模型岩溶塌陷预测分析. 工程地质学报, 27(6): 1389-1394. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-347
    CHEN Xuejun, CHEN Lijie, SONG Yu, BI Pengyan. 2019: PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF KARST COLLAPSE WITH ENTROPY-NORMAL CLOUD MODEL. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(6): 1389-1394. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-347
    Citation: CHEN Xuejun, CHEN Lijie, SONG Yu, BI Pengyan. 2019: PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF KARST COLLAPSE WITH ENTROPY-NORMAL CLOUD MODEL. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(6): 1389-1394. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018-347

    熵权-正态云模型岩溶塌陷预测分析

    PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF KARST COLLAPSE WITH ENTROPY-NORMAL CLOUD MODEL

    • 摘要: 为了研究岩溶地区的岩溶塌陷预测问题,根据大量岩溶塌陷实例确定6项岩溶地区典型的影响因子(岩性系数(RQC)、岩体结构系数(RMSC)、地下水系数(GWC)、覆盖层系数(SSC)、地形地貌系数(LPC)、环境条件系数(ECC)),采用熵权法计算各项影响因子的权重并结合云理论建立熵权正态云模型。通过模型对桂林西城区岩溶塌陷进行预测且结合实际塌陷情况进行比较分析,结果证明建立的熵权正态云模型的预测结果与实际结果比较接近。表明该模型对于岩溶塌陷的预测分析方面具有良好的适用性和可靠性,且能够为岩溶发育地区岩溶塌陷的非线性、复杂性预测判断提供一种新的思路和方法。

       

      Abstract: This paper studies the karst collapse prediction method in the karst area. It bases on a large number of karst collapse examples. It identifies six typical influencing factors in the karst area. They are lithology coefficient(RQC), rock mass structure coefficient(RMSC), groundwater coefficient(GWC), overlap factor(SSC), topographic coefficient(LPC) and environmental condition factor(ECC). It combines the cloud theory to establish an entropy weight normal cloud model. The model can predict the possibility of collapse in the karst area by calculating the weight of each impact factor in the subsidence area. The model is used to predict the data before the collapse of the karst collapse in the west of Guilin. The prediction result is close to the actual collapse. This proves that the model has good applicability and reliability for karst collapse prediction analysis. It provides new method for predicting and judging the nonlinearity and complexity of karst collapse in karst development areas.

       

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