Abstract:
Rainfall is one of the important factors that induce geo-hazards. The early warning of regional geo-hazards based on the meteorological factor started in 2003, had achieved good results. The current early warning of regional geo-hazards are step by step from the "danger warning" to "risk warning". Early-warning model study of regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor is of great significance. This paper put forward the general model of early warning for regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor, and took a case study of Qingchuan County, Sichuan Province. Finally, the effect of the early warning was verified with a typical example. (1)The regional geo-hazards risk warning index(
R)could be generalized as the product of geo-hazards potentiality parameter(
Q), rainfall trigger factor(
T) and vulnerability index(
V). The calculation formulas of the three index(
Q,
T,
V)were given respectively. (2)The early warning model of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was established in Qingchuan County. According to the early warning index of regional geo-hazards, the principle dividing warning level was given. When two items of
Q,
T and
V reached a high level(0.8) and one item reached a relative high level(0.6), it was a red alert; When two items of
Q,
T and
V reached a relative high level(0.6) and one item reached a middle level(0.3), it was a orange alert; When one item of
Q,
T and
V reached a relatively high level(0.6), and two items reached a middle level(0.3), it was a yellow alert. (3)Taking 26 June, 2018 as a typical example, the early warning of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was simulated. With the actual geo-hazards, the warning effect was verified. The results showed that 94.1% of the geo-hazards were located in the warning area.