宋宇飞, 范文, 李军, 等. 2020. 不同降雨条件下不稳定斜坡财产损失风险评价———以镇巴县兴隆镇为例[J]. 工程地质学报, 28(2): 401- 411. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-255.
    引用本文: 宋宇飞, 范文, 李军, 等. 2020. 不同降雨条件下不稳定斜坡财产损失风险评价———以镇巴县兴隆镇为例[J]. 工程地质学报, 28(2): 401- 411. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-255.
    Song Yufei, Fan Wen, Li Jun, et al. 2020. Risk assessment of property loss caused by unstable slopes under different rainfall conditions—A case study of Xinglong town of Zhenba county[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 28(2): 401-411. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-255.
    Citation: Song Yufei, Fan Wen, Li Jun, et al. 2020. Risk assessment of property loss caused by unstable slopes under different rainfall conditions—A case study of Xinglong town of Zhenba county[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 28(2): 401-411. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-255.

    不同降雨条件下不稳定斜坡财产损失风险评价——以镇巴县兴隆镇为例

    RISK ASSESSMENT OF PROPERTY LOSS CAUSED BY UNSTABLE SLOPES UNDER DIFFERENT RAINFALL CONDITIONS—A CASE STUDY OF XINGLONG TOWN OF ZHENBA COUNTY

    • 摘要: 山区城镇化的加速发展使得切坡、削坡现象普遍发生,导致城镇周边隐患斜坡的数量增加、规模增加,诱发隐患斜坡转变为滑坡的临界降雨强度降低,城镇财产损失风险大大提升。如何准确地对不同强度降雨条件下城镇财产损失的风险进行评价是亟待解决的前沿问题,本文以镇巴县兴隆镇为例,通过收集研究区多年降雨数据集,利用皮尔逊三型水文模型得到研究区不同重现期下的降雨强度,在此基础上结合野外斜坡调查资料、岩土体实验数据,采用蒙特-卡洛法计算得到城镇周边不稳定斜坡在不同降雨条件下的破坏概率,并对斜坡影响范围内的承灾体的易损性和财产价值进行评价,最终根据财产风险计算公式得到各斜坡在不同降雨工况下的财产损失风险值。风险计算结果表明:城镇内受不稳定斜坡威胁的房屋共245栋,占总房屋数量的30.4%,城镇房屋总价值约为5260.4万元,在天然、10年、20年、50年一遇降雨条件下年损失财产价值分别为22.8万元、69.73万元、122.5万元、150.5万元,其中超过55%的财产损失均是由1-2、2-6、3-5、4-3这4个边坡造成,并且在降雨强度递增时,这4个边坡对财产损失风险的贡献在逐步降低,占比分别为:88.33%、62.9%、58.64%以及57.54%,可见只要对这4个斜坡进行必要的防治即可大幅地缩减财产损失。

       

      Abstract: Shallow landslide is a common geological hazard in Qinba mountain area. In recent years, the amount of unstable slopes is increasing because of the urbanization. The unstable slope is one of the most serious threatens to the urbanization, because it is very easy changed into shallow landslide with rainfall. It is an urgent to predict the property loss risk caused by unstable slope under different rainfall condition. This paper takes the unstable slopes of Xinglong town as research objective, and assesses the property loss of the buildings affected by the unstable slopes. Firstly, we collect the rainfall data of Xinglong town and fitting these data using Pearson Ⅲ curve to predict the rainfall intensity at different recurrence periods, and then combine rainfall infiltration model and Mote-Carlo method to calculate the probability of unstable slopes changing into landslides under different rainfall conditions. After that, we calculate the vulnerability and the value of objects affected by unstable slopes by means of vulnerability model combined with survey and exploration data. At the end, we use the risk assessment formula proposed by Fell in 2005 to calculate the property loss risk under different rainfall conditions. The results show the following three findings. (1) 245 buildings are affected by unstable slopes, account for 30.4% of the total buildings in Xinglong town. (2) The risk value of the buildings affected by unstable slopes under the rainfall conditions of no rainfall, 65.57mm ·d-1, 72.88mm ·d-1, 85.91mm ·d-1 are 0.228, 0.697, 1.225 and 1.505 million yuan, respectively. (3) More than 55% of the loss is caused by the unstable slopes 1-2, 2-6, 3-5 and 4-3, and the loss caused by these four unstable slopes under the rainfall conditions of no rainfall is 65.57mm ·d-1, 72.88mm ·d-1, 85.91mm ·d-1 over the total loss are 88.33%, 62.9%, 58.64% and 57.54%, respectively.

       

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