杨汝华, 王成虎, 侯正阳, 王洪, 周昊. 2019: 基于工程案例统计分析的岩爆判据研究与预测. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 418-424. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019026
    引用本文: 杨汝华, 王成虎, 侯正阳, 王洪, 周昊. 2019: 基于工程案例统计分析的岩爆判据研究与预测. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 418-424. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019026
    YANG Ruhua, WANG Chenghu, HOU Zhengyang, WANG Hong, ZHOU Hao. 2019: RESEARCH AND PREDICTION OF ROCK BURST CRITERION BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ENGINEERING CASES. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 418-424. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019026
    Citation: YANG Ruhua, WANG Chenghu, HOU Zhengyang, WANG Hong, ZHOU Hao. 2019: RESEARCH AND PREDICTION OF ROCK BURST CRITERION BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ENGINEERING CASES. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 418-424. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019026

    基于工程案例统计分析的岩爆判据研究与预测

    RESEARCH AND PREDICTION OF ROCK BURST CRITERION BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ENGINEERING CASES

    • 摘要: 在高地应力地区准确地预测岩爆发生的可能性及严重程度一直是地下工程建设中的难题之一。经多名学者的深入研究,根据岩爆的形成机理和发生条件,提出了多种岩爆判据,然而这些判据是依据引起岩爆的单一因素或单一工程实例提出,主要对岩爆发生时的围岩应力和岩爆倾向性指数进行分析,进而进行岩爆等级的划分。本文搜集整理了203个岩爆案例的等级发生情况,其中36个案例收集到了较全面的岩石力学参数和岩爆倾向性指数等指标。通过采用多种岩爆判据指标对工程案例发生岩爆等级进行预测及统计分析,并与实际岩爆情况进行对比发现,应力判据中的σθmax/σc指标和能量判据中的Wet指标准确度较高,高达88.9%,应力判据中的σ1/σc指标准确度较低,仅有44.4%,得到了岩爆案例不同判据预测岩爆程度等级准确度概率图。该分析结果能够为高地应力地区有效预测岩爆提供参考。

       

      Abstract: It is always a difficult problem to accurately predict the possibility and severity of rock burst in high geostress area. After years of research, domestic and foreign scholars have proposed a variety of rock burst criteria based on the formation mechanism and occurrence conditions of rock burst. However, these criteria are based solely on a single factor or a single engineering case that causes rock burst, analyzing the stress of surrounding rock and the rock burst tendency index when rock burst occurs, and then dividing the rock burst level. This article collected and categorized the occurrence of 203 rock burst cases, of which 36 cases collected more comprehensive rock mechanics parameters and rock burst orientation indexes. By adapting a variety of rock burst criterion index to forecast and statistically analyze the level of rock burst in engineering case and comparing it with the actual rock burst, it finds that stress criterion of σθmax/σc index and energy criterion of Wet index is highly accurate, up to 88.9%, and the stress criterion of σ1/σc target accuracy is low, only 44.4%. This paper obtains the probability map of rock burst degree grade accuracy by different criteria of rockburst case. The analysis results can provide a reference for effective prediction of rock burst in high ground stress region.

       

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