吴晨光, 陆盟, 张洁, 赵江. 2019: 降雨型滑坡运动距离概率预测模型. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 164-171. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019051
    引用本文: 吴晨光, 陆盟, 张洁, 赵江. 2019: 降雨型滑坡运动距离概率预测模型. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 164-171. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019051
    WU Chenguang, LU Meng, ZHANG Jie, ZHAO Jiang. 2019: PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF RAIN-INDUCED LANDSLIDE TRAVEL DISTANCE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 164-171. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019051
    Citation: WU Chenguang, LU Meng, ZHANG Jie, ZHAO Jiang. 2019: PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF RAIN-INDUCED LANDSLIDE TRAVEL DISTANCE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 164-171. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019051

    降雨型滑坡运动距离概率预测模型

    PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF RAIN-INDUCED LANDSLIDE TRAVEL DISTANCE

    • 摘要: 降雨诱发的滑坡是一种常见的地质灾害。滑坡灾害的后果与其运动距离密切相关。对降雨条件下滑坡距离进行预测是进行灾害定量风险评价的基础。本文系统地搜集309例降雨型滑坡案例,建立了降雨条件下滑坡水平运动距离数据库。基于建立的数据库,对降雨诱发滑坡的体积、初始坡度、表面长宽比、以及运动距离等指标进行了统计分析。建立了可考虑有阻碍滑坡和无阻碍滑坡案例影响的降雨型滑坡水平运动距离预测模型的标定方法。提出的方法不但可以预测滑坡水平运动距离,而且可以得到其模型误差和置信区间。单因素分析表明,滑坡水平运动距离与滑坡垂直运动距离相关性最高,之后依次是滑坡体积、滑坡表面长宽比,与滑坡原始角度相关性最差。逐步线性回归分析表明,基于垂直运动距离、滑坡体积和表面长宽比的滑坡水平运动距离预测模型的拟合优度最高。

       

      Abstract: Rain-induced landslide is a common geological hazard. The consequence of landslide hazard is closely related to its travel distance. The prediction of rain-induced landslide horizontal travel distance is the basis of quantitative risk assessment. This paper built a database through collecting 309 cases of rain-induced landslides systematically. According to the database, we statistically analyzed the horizontal travel distance, volume, vertical travel distance, initial slope gradient and aspect ratio. Then we developed a calibration method of rain-induced landslides travel distance empirical model considering both confined and unconfined landslides. The proposed method could not only get the prediction of horizontal travel distance, but also the model error and confidence interval. Single factor analysis shows that the correlation of vertical travel distance with horizontal travel distance is highest, following are volume, aspect ratio and initial slope gradient. Stepwise regression analysis shows that the prediction model of rain-induced landslides based on the vertical travel distance, volume and aspect ratio is the fittest.

       

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