张闯, 李建中, 胡天杨, 张玉炘. 2019: 4种灰色Verhulst模型在基坑沉降预测中的应用研究. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 37-45. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019059
    引用本文: 张闯, 李建中, 胡天杨, 张玉炘. 2019: 4种灰色Verhulst模型在基坑沉降预测中的应用研究. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 37-45. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019059
    ZHANG Chuang, LI Jianzhong, HU Tianyang, ZHANG Yuxin. 2019: APPLICATION OF FOUR GREY VERHULST MODELS IN SETTLEMENT PREDICTION OF FOUNDATION PIT. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 37-45. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019059
    Citation: ZHANG Chuang, LI Jianzhong, HU Tianyang, ZHANG Yuxin. 2019: APPLICATION OF FOUR GREY VERHULST MODELS IN SETTLEMENT PREDICTION OF FOUNDATION PIT. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 37-45. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019059

    4种灰色Verhulst模型在基坑沉降预测中的应用研究

    APPLICATION OF FOUR GREY VERHULST MODELS IN SETTLEMENT PREDICTION OF FOUNDATION PIT

    • 摘要: 基于基坑沉降监测问题,提出了4种监测模型。模型1为传统的灰色Verhulst模型。模型2为采用变换倒数和优化的约束模型来求解背景值参数与初值参数的优化灰色Verhulst模型。模型3为采用离散化思维对原数据序列进行倒数变换,完成从连续的形式向离散的形式变化的优化灰色离散Verhulst模型。模型4为采用新陈代谢方法的优化灰色离散Verhulst模型。利用提出的4种模型对中国深圳龙城工业园某基坑的沉降进行预测计算。计算结果与实测结果比较表明,采用新陈代谢方法的优化灰色离散Verhulst模型具有较高的预测精度和稳定性,能较好地描述基坑沉降。

       

      Abstract: Considering on the monitoring problem of foundation pit settlement, four prediction models were proposed. Model 1 was a traditional grey Verhulst model. Model 2 was an optimized grey Verhulst model which used the reciprocal transformation and the optimization model without constraint to acquire the parameters of the background value and initial value. Model 3 was an optimized discrete grey Verhulst model that was built on the reciprocal transformation of the original data sequence by discretization method. Model 4 was an optimized discrete grey Verhulst model constructed through the metabolic method. The proposed models were used to predict the settlement of the foundation pit of a building in Longcheng Industrial Park in Shenzhen. The comparison between the calculated results and the measured results shows that the optimized gray discrete Verhulst model with the metabolic method has higher prediction accuracy and stability, and could better describe the settlement.

       

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