李凯, 许冲, 谭明, 陈建波, 李帅, 罗炬, 吴国栋. 2019: 基于GIS和逻辑回归模型的2012年和静地震滑坡危险性评价. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 262-268. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019102
    引用本文: 李凯, 许冲, 谭明, 陈建波, 李帅, 罗炬, 吴国栋. 2019: 基于GIS和逻辑回归模型的2012年和静地震滑坡危险性评价. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 262-268. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019102
    LI Kai, XU Chong, TAN Ming, CHEN Jianbo, LI Shuai, LUO Ju, WU Guodong. 2019: GIS-BASED AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR HAZARD ASSESS-MENT OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY HEJING EARTHQUAKE IN 2012. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 262-268. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019102
    Citation: LI Kai, XU Chong, TAN Ming, CHEN Jianbo, LI Shuai, LUO Ju, WU Guodong. 2019: GIS-BASED AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR HAZARD ASSESS-MENT OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY HEJING EARTHQUAKE IN 2012. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 262-268. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019102

    基于GIS和逻辑回归模型的2012年和静地震滑坡危险性评价

    GIS-BASED AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR HAZARD ASSESS-MENT OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY HEJING EARTHQUAKE IN 2012

    • 摘要: 2012年6月30日发生于新疆和静县与新源县交界处的MS6.6级地震触发了大量同震滑坡。作者基于震后1 m分辨率的IKONOS遥感影像进行了滑坡解译,圈定了306处滑坡。这些滑坡规模相对较小,选择高程、烈度、山坡坡度、距断裂距离、斜坡曲率、山坡坡向、坡位、距公路距离、距水系距离、地层岩性10个因子作为地震滑坡的影响因子。地理信息系统(GIS)平台上将影响因子进行图层栅格化,应用逻辑回归模型(Logistic Regression,LR)对和静地震滑坡进行危险性评价,将研究区划分为极高危险区、高危险区、中危险区、低危险区和极低危险区,得出滑坡危险性评价分区图。用ROC曲线对预测结果进行验证,结果表明训练样本集的AUC值为0.80,表明LR模型的精度较高。最后结论为震区区域滑坡防灾减灾提供了参考。

       

      Abstract: On June 30, 2012, a large number of co-seismic landslides were triggered by the MS6.6 earthquake at the junction of Hejing County and Xinyuan County in Xinjiang. 306 landslides were interpreted and delineated from the IKONOS remote sensing image whose resolution is 1 m after the earthquake. Most of the landslides were small, Elevation, earthquake intensity, slope, distance to fault, curvature, aspect, slope position, distance to roads, distance to drainage sand lithology were selected as the influencing factors of the earthquake landslides. Rasterized the layers of influence factors on the platform of Geographic Information System(GIS),the aim of this study was to apply logistic regression model for the Hejing earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping, and then divided research area into extremely high hazard zone, high hazard zone, middle hazard zone, low hazard zone, extremely low hazard zone, and the map of landslide hazard assessment was obtained. The ROC curve was used to validate the prediction results. The result shows that the AUC value of the training sample set is 0.80,which indicates that the accuracy of the LR model is ideal. The final conclusion in the paper provides a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation of landslides in the earthquake zone.

       

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