葛一荀, 张洁, 郑文棠, 汪华安. 2019: 基于标准贯入试验的土体液化判别准则模型误差分析及土体液化概率预测. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 489-496. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019123
    引用本文: 葛一荀, 张洁, 郑文棠, 汪华安. 2019: 基于标准贯入试验的土体液化判别准则模型误差分析及土体液化概率预测. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 489-496. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019123
    GE Yixun, ZHANG Jie, ZHENG Wentang, WANG Hua'an. 2019: SPT-BASED SOIL LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT: MODEL UNCERTAINTY CALIBRATION AND PROBABILISTIC LIQUEFACTION PREDICTION. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 489-496. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019123
    Citation: GE Yixun, ZHANG Jie, ZHENG Wentang, WANG Hua'an. 2019: SPT-BASED SOIL LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT: MODEL UNCERTAINTY CALIBRATION AND PROBABILISTIC LIQUEFACTION PREDICTION. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 489-496. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019123

    基于标准贯入试验的土体液化判别准则模型误差分析及土体液化概率预测

    SPT-BASED SOIL LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT: MODEL UNCERTAINTY CALIBRATION AND PROBABILISTIC LIQUEFACTION PREDICTION

    • 摘要: 基于标准贯入试验的经验判别准则在建立过程中,由于存在较多的不确定性因素,不可避免地具有模型误差。本研究基于1962~1976年间的8场地震中的液化案例数据,采用极大似然理论对《工业与民用建筑抗震设计规范(TJ11-74)》、《建筑抗震设计规范(GB50011-2001)》和《建筑抗震设计规范(GB50011-2010)》中液化判别准则的误差进行了分析。研究表明:3种液化判别准则在分析1974年以前的液化案例时的精度较低,在分析1974年以后的液化案例时的精度较高,这可能与前者的锤击数并非由标准贯入试验直接获得有关;根据贝叶斯信息准则,GB50011-2001具有最高的最优模型概率,与液化案例数据符合程度最高。土体液化判别结果存在不确定性,本文给出了基于液化判别准则的模型误差以及未经修正的饱和土标准贯入锤击数与液化判别标准贯入锤击数临界值的比值计算的土体的液化概率公式。

       

      Abstract: There is a lot of uncertainty in the process of establishing Standard penetration test(SPT)based empirical liquefaction assessment model which inevitably has model uncertainty within it. The database used in this paper contains 8 earthquakes between 1962 and 1976. Adopting the maximum likelihood method, the authors calibrate the model uncertainty of liquefaction discriminants of Code for Seismic Design of Industrial and Civil Buildings(TJ11-74),Code for Seismic Design of Buildings(GB50011-2001) and Code for Seismic Design of Buildings(GB50011-2010). Conclusions are that the three liquefaction discriminants are less accurate in the analysis of case histories before 1974, and the accuracy is higher in the analysis of case histories after 1974. The reason may be that SPT blow counts of case histories before 1974 did not come directly from SPT test. According to Bayesian information criterion, the GB50011-2001 liquefaction discriminant has the highest model probability and fits best the dataset. The result of soil liquefaction discrimination also has model uncertainty. The liquefaction probability of soil can be calculated based on the model error of liquefaction discriminants and the ratio of measured SPT blow counts to critical SPT blow counts.

       

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