石振明, 朱春安, 彭铭, 沈丹祎, 熊永峰. 2019: 堰塞坝灾害动态演化过程定量风险分析. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 340-347. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019158
    引用本文: 石振明, 朱春安, 彭铭, 沈丹祎, 熊永峰. 2019: 堰塞坝灾害动态演化过程定量风险分析. 工程地质学报, 27(s1): 340-347. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019158
    SHI Zhenming, ZHU Chun'an, PENG Ming, SHEN Danyi, XIONG Yongfeng. 2019: QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC EVOLUTION PROCESS OF DAMS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 340-347. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019158
    Citation: SHI Zhenming, ZHU Chun'an, PENG Ming, SHEN Danyi, XIONG Yongfeng. 2019: QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC EVOLUTION PROCESS OF DAMS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(s1): 340-347. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019158

    堰塞坝灾害动态演化过程定量风险分析

    QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMIC EVOLUTION PROCESS OF DAMS

    • 摘要: 堰塞坝是由崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等失稳体堵塞河道而形成的天然坝体,由于堰塞坝寿命较短,受影响流域较长,现有的评估方法很难在有限的时间内对全流域的整个灾害演化过程进行动态的定量风险评估。本文利用堰塞坝几何参数、三维地形信息和人口分布数据等基本信息形成一套完整的动态风险定量评估体系,对唐家山堰塞湖进行了动态风险分析,最后得出唐家山堰塞坝下游各风险区的动态定量风险值。结果表明,风险区的风险高低大体上与距坝址距离呈现负相关,距离坝址越近的地方风险越高;风险的动态演化呈现延时性,距坝址较近的风险区接收风险时,较远地区还没有风险;当较近风险区风险开始消散时,较远风险区的风险处于升高状态。分析结果与唐家山堰塞坝的实际风险情况吻合度较好,对于后期风险管控具有重要参考价值。

       

      Abstract: Landslide dams are formed by the collapse, landslide, mudslide and other unstable bodies. Due to the short lifespan of the dam and the long affected basin, the existing methods are difficult to assessment the dynamic risk of entire disaster evolution process across the basin. In this paper, a dynamic risk analysis method was proposed based on geometric parameters of the dam, the three-dimensional topographic information of the river and the population distribution data. Besides, the dynamic risk analysis of the Tangjiashan landslide dam was carried out, and quantitative risk value of the downstream was obtained. The results show that the risk level of the risk zone is generally negatively correlated with the distance, the closer the dam site is,the higher the risk is. The dynamic evolution of the risk is usually delayed, when the risk zone near the dam site receives the risk, there is still no risk in the distant area; while the risks in the nearby begin to dissipate, the risks in the distant areas increase. The analysis results are in good agreement with the actual risk situation of the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which has important reference value for later risk management.

       

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