尚敏, 廖芬, 马锐, 等. 2021. 白家包滑坡变形与库水位、降雨相关性定量化分析研究[J].工程地质学报, 29(3): 742- 750. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-045.
    引用本文: 尚敏, 廖芬, 马锐, 等. 2021. 白家包滑坡变形与库水位、降雨相关性定量化分析研究[J].工程地质学报, 29(3): 742- 750. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-045.
    Shang Min, Liao Fen, Ma Rui, et al. 2021. Quantitative correlation analysis on deformation of Baijiabao landslide between rainfall and reservoir water level [J].Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(3): 742-750. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-045.
    Citation: Shang Min, Liao Fen, Ma Rui, et al. 2021. Quantitative correlation analysis on deformation of Baijiabao landslide between rainfall and reservoir water level [J].Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(3): 742-750. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-045.

    白家包滑坡变形与库水位、降雨相关性定量化分析研究

    QUANTITATIVE CORRELATION ANALYSIS ON DEFORMATION OF BAIJIABAO LANDSLIDE BETWEEN RAINFALL AND RESERVOIR WATER LEVEL

    • 摘要: 白家包滑坡是具有滞后性“阶跃型”变形的滑坡代表,通过定性分析初步认为,库水位下降是白家包滑坡变形的主要影响因素,其影响程度大于降雨。为了进一步明确白家包滑坡变形对库水位波动和降雨的响应程度,本文根据库水位每年波动情况,将其划分为5个阶段,运用皮尔逊相关系数法对白家包滑坡变形与库水位、降雨的相关性进行定量计算,计算结果为各监测点变形与库水位、降雨都在5~6月份综合计算中相关程度最高,且变形与库水位最大相关性系数绝对值为0.75左右,大于变形与降雨的最大相关性系数(0.45左右)。为了充分消除库水位与降雨之间的相互影响,运用皮尔逊相关系数分别计算白家包滑坡变形与库水位、降雨的净相关性系数,最后将得到的净相关性系数与新建GPS自动监测点在2017~2018年的日变形位移和库水位、降雨对比分析,进行相关性验证。结果表明:白家包滑坡的变形对库水位下降的响应程度大于变形对降雨的响应程度,在库水位快速下降阶段响应程度最高,且与新建的GPS自动监测点监测结果吻合度较高。此结果与定性分析结果和皮尔逊相关系数法分析结果一致,该研究可对滑坡变形影响因素的定量分析提供科学的依据。

       

      Abstract: The Baijiabao landslide is a representative of landslides with hysteretic"step-type" deformation. According to qualitative analysis, the reservoir water level decline is the main influencing factor of Baijiabao landslide deformation, and its impact degree is greater than rainfall. In order to clarify the response degree of Baijiabao landslide deformation to reservoir water level fluctuation and rainfall, this paper divides it into five stages according to the annual fluctuation of reservoir water level. The Pearson correlation coefficient method is used to quantitatively calculate the correlation on deformation of Baijiabao landslide between water level and rainfall. The calculation results show that the deformation of each monitoring point and the reservoir water level and rainfall are the most relevant in the comprehensive calculation from May to June. The absolute correlation coefficient between deformation and reservoir water level is about 0.75, and is greater than the maximum correlation coefficient between deformation and rainfall(about 0.45). In order to completely eliminate the interaction between reservoir water level and rainfall, the Pearson correlation coefficient is used to calculate the net correlation coefficient between Baijiabao landslide deformation and reservoir water level and rainfall. Finally, the net correlation coefficients are used to compare with the daily deformation displacement of the GPS automatic monitoring point in 2017-2018 to verify. The results show that the response of the deformation of the Baijiabao landslide to the reservoir water level is greater than to the rainfall. The response degree is the highest in the rapid decline of the reservoir water level, and it is consistent with the monitoring results of the newly built GPS automatic monitoring points, the results of qualitative analysis and Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. This study can provide a scientific basis for the quantitative analysis of the factors affecting landslide deformation.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回