高晨曦, 刘艺梁, 薛欣, 等. 2021.三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡变形滞后时间效应研究[J].工程地质学报, 29(5): 1427-1436. doi: 10. 13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0042.
    引用本文: 高晨曦, 刘艺梁, 薛欣, 等. 2021.三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡变形滞后时间效应研究[J].工程地质学报, 29(5): 1427-1436. doi: 10. 13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0042.
    Gao Chenxi, Liu Yiliang, Xue Xin, et al. 2021. Study on deformation lag time effect of typical colluvial landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area [J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(5): 1427- 1436. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0042.
    Citation: Gao Chenxi, Liu Yiliang, Xue Xin, et al. 2021. Study on deformation lag time effect of typical colluvial landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area [J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(5): 1427- 1436. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0042.

    三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡变形滞后时间效应研究

    STUDY ON DEFORMATION LAG TIME EFFECT OF TYPICAL COLLUVIAL LANDSLIDE IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA

    • 摘要: 堆积层滑坡是三峡水库运行过程中的重要地质灾害,其变形演化往往滞后于库水位的变化,表现出时间滞后效应,给滑坡灾害精准预测和灾害警情准确发布造成极大困扰。采用集对分析法并结合层次分析法,构建了滑坡加权位移向量计算模型,在滑坡加权位移演化与库水位波动相互关系定性分析的基础上,寻找滑坡加权位移与库水位变化速率相关性达到最大时的平移步数,从而计算出滑坡变形滞后于库水位变化的时间。以三峡库区典型堆积层滑坡——树坪滑坡为例,在分析滑坡变形演化规律基础上,分别选取2012年、2013年、2014年汛雨期地表位移与库水位下降速率的监测数据开展滑坡变形滞后时间研究。研究发现:当库水位下降速率小于等于0.43 m·d-1时,树坪滑坡变形滞后时间大于等于5 d;当库水位下降速率在0.43 m·d-1到0.7 m·d-1之间时,树坪滑坡变形滞后时间在2 d到5 d之间;当库水位下降速率大于等于0.7 m·d-1时,树坪滑坡变形滞后时间小于等于2 d;随着库水位下降速率不断增大,树坪滑坡变形滞后时间不断缩短。通过分析滑坡不同空间位置监测点的滞后时间,发现越靠近滑坡体前缘变形滞后时间越短,当库水位下降速率在0.43 m·d-1到0.7 m·d-1之间时,滑坡前缘变形滞后时间在2.4 d到5.4 d之间,滑坡中部的变形滞后时间在3.4 d到5.6 d之间,滑坡前缘和中部的变形滞后时间差在0.2 d到1.4 d之间。研究成果可以为树坪滑坡的监测预警防治工作提供参考,对重大水利工程涉水滑坡监测预警具有一定借鉴意义。

       

      Abstract: Colluvial landslide is an important type of geological hazard during the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, and its deformation evolution often lag behind the change of rainfall and reservoir level, show the time lag effect, which brings a great challenge to landslide hazard prediction and disaster alert release. In this paper, firstly we construct a landslide weighted displacement vector calculation model by adopting set pair analysis method and analytic hierarchy process method, then carry out the qualitative analysis of the relationship between landslide weighted displacement evolution and reservoir water level, then look for the number of translation steps when the correlation between landslide weighted displacement and reservoir water level change rate reaches the maximum, finally calculate the time that landslide deformation lags behind the reservoir water level change. Taking Shuping landslide which is a typical colluvial landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example, based on the analysis of the landslide deformation evolution law, the monitoring data of surface displacement and reservoir water level decreasing rate during flood and rain periods in 2012, 2013, and 2014 were respectively selected to carry out research on landslide deformation lag time. The results show that when the decreasing rate of reservoir water level is less than or equal to 0.43 m·d-1, the deformation lag time of Shuping landslide is greater than or equal to 5 d; When the decreasing rate of reservoir water level is between 0.43 m·d-1 and 0.7 m·d-1, the deformation lag time of Shuping landslide is between 2 d and 5 d; When the decreasing rate of reservoir water level is greater than or equal to 0.7 m·d-1, the deformation lag time of Shuping landslide is less than or equal to 2 d. Therefore, the decreasing rate of reservoir water level increases, the lag time of landslide deformation decreases. By analyzing the lag time of monitoring points at different spatial locations of the landslide, it is found that the closer the landslide front edge, the shorter the landslide deformation lag time. When the decreasing rate of reservoir water level is between 0.43 m·d-1 and 0.7 m·d-1, the deformation lag time at the front edge of Shuping landslide is between 2.4 d and 5.4 d, the deformation lag time at the middle part of Shuping landslide is between 3.4 d and 5.6 d, and the deformation lag time interval between the front and middle parts of Shuping landslide is from 0.2 d to 1.4 d. The research results can provide reference for the monitoring and early warning of Shuping landslide, and have certain reference significance for the monitoring and early warning of partly submerged landslides in major water conservancy projects.

       

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