文洪,王栋,王生仁,等. 2021.藏东南帕隆藏布流域雪崩关键影响因素与易发性区划研究[J].工程地质学报,29(2):404-415. doi:10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0121. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0121
    引用本文: 文洪,王栋,王生仁,等. 2021.藏东南帕隆藏布流域雪崩关键影响因素与易发性区划研究[J].工程地质学报,29(2):404-415. doi:10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0121. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0121
    Wen Hong, Wang Dong, Wang Shengren, et al. 2021. Key predisposing factors and susceptibility mapping of snow avalanche in Parlung-Tsangpo catchment,southeast Tibetan plateau[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(2): 404-415. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0121.
    Citation: Wen Hong, Wang Dong, Wang Shengren, et al. 2021. Key predisposing factors and susceptibility mapping of snow avalanche in Parlung-Tsangpo catchment,southeast Tibetan plateau[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(2): 404-415. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0121.

    藏东南帕隆藏布流域雪崩关键影响因素与易发性区划研究

    KEY PREDISPOSING FACTORS AND SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING OF SNOW AVALANCHE IN PARLUNG-TSANGPO CATCHMENT, SOUTHEAST TIBETAN PLATEAU

    • 摘要: 雪崩灾害是青藏高原广泛分布的一类灾害,通过对雪崩的关键影响因素分析,构建雪崩灾害易发性评价体系,可为布局在青藏高原的川藏铁路等重大工程建设的防灾减灾工作提供科学支撑。本文以藏东南帕隆藏布流域为例,基于遥感解译和野外调查,识别出381个崩至林线以下的沟槽型雪崩范围,综合选取了18个雪崩影响因子,运用主成分分析法(PCA)对影响因子进行分析,获得了帕隆藏布流域雪崩发育的关键影响因素,并赋予各影响因素权重,通过加权信息量(PCA-Ⅰ)和加权确定性系数(PCA-CF)进行雪崩易发性区划,采用ROC曲线进行精度检验。结果表明,帕隆藏布流域内雪崩活动的关键影响因素可归纳为气候气象、宏观地形、微观地形和抑制作用成分4类主成分因素,其中气候气象解释了30.61%的数据变异,地形地貌解释了21.23%的数据变异;PCA-Ⅰ模型计算的雪崩易发性区划指数在-2.41,1.365区间内,PCA-CF得到雪崩易发性区划指数在-0.549,0.424区间内,两者ROC曲线的AUC均大于0.70;但PCA-Ⅰ模型计算的雪崩易发性结果在帕隆藏布下游通麦段的河谷区呈现明显的异常区,相对而言,PCA-CF模型计算的雪崩易发性区划指数更合理,且其ROC曲线的AUC评价精度高达0.913。整体结果表明雪崩高易发区域主要分布于帕隆藏布上游窄谷段(然乌至玉普段)、中下游(玉普至通麦段)两岸山岭的山脊部位和各支流窄谷段。

       

      Abstract: Snow avalanche is one of the most common geological disasters ubiquitously distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Snow avalanche susceptibility mapping is critical for disaster prevention and mitigation of major engineering construction such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway. This paper exemplifies the Parlung-Tsangpo catchment in south-eastern Tibet, collects 381 channelled snow avalanches that fell below the timberline through field surveys and remote sensing interpretation. First of all, 18 influence factors are selected and quantitatively extracted by using GIS, remote sensing, et al. Then, Principal Component Analysis(PCA)method is performed to obtain the key predisposing factors and assign weight coefficient to each factor. Thereafter, the Weighted Information Value Method(PCA-Ⅰ) and Weighted Certainty Factor Method(PCA-CF) are conducted to map snow avalanche susceptibility. Finally, the performance of two models is compared and evaluated based on ROC(receiver operating characteristic) curve and AUC(area under receiver). The results show that the susceptibility assessment is very sensitive to climate, macro-topography, micro-topography, and inhibition factors. Among them, the climate explained 30.61% of the data variation; topography explained 21.23% of the data variation. The PCA-Ⅰ model gives the susceptibility zoning index in the range of -2.41, 1.365, and the PCA-CF model gives the susceptibility zoning index ranging in-0.549, 0.424. In addition, the susceptibility map of the PCA-Ⅰ model has a significant abnormal area in downstream at the Tongmai section. Thus, the zoning index of the PCA-CF model is more reasonable than that of the PCA-Ⅰ model. The overall results suggest that the high snow avalanche prone areas are mainly distributed at Ranwu-Yupu section along the National Road 318 around in the upper narrow valley section of Parlung-Tsangpo river, the ridges of the mountains on both sides of the middle and lower reaches, and the narrow valley sections of the tributaries.

       

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