吴昊, 单治钢, 倪卫达, 王宽君. 2021: 基于逻辑回归原理的堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型应用研究. 工程地质学报, 29(S1): 135-143. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0464
    引用本文: 吴昊, 单治钢, 倪卫达, 王宽君. 2021: 基于逻辑回归原理的堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型应用研究. 工程地质学报, 29(S1): 135-143. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0464
    WU Hao, SHAN Zhigang, NI Weida, WANG Kuanjun. 2021: STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF RAPID EVALUATION MODEL OF LANDSLIDE DAM STABILITY. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 29(S1): 135-143. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0464
    Citation: WU Hao, SHAN Zhigang, NI Weida, WANG Kuanjun. 2021: STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF RAPID EVALUATION MODEL OF LANDSLIDE DAM STABILITY. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 29(S1): 135-143. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0464

    基于逻辑回归原理的堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型应用研究

    STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF RAPID EVALUATION MODEL OF LANDSLIDE DAM STABILITY

    • 摘要: 堰塞坝稳定性分析是当前的研究热点,准确、快速地对堰塞坝的稳定性进行评估,对应急抢险具有十分重要的意义。基于文献汇编,梳理并对比了国内外典型的堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型;在此基础上,基于所建立的滑坡堵江数据库,充分考虑了堰塞坝长度对其稳定性的影响,采用逻辑回归方法,建立了基于坝长、坝宽和堰塞湖库容量三参数的堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型;以白格滑坡堵江案例为背景,采用所提出的三参数堰塞坝稳定性快速评估模型,开展案例应用研究。研究结果表明:所提出的快速评估模型综合正确率为86.7%,误报率为5.1%,工程上偏安全;以白格滑坡堰塞坝为研究对象,开展了案例应用分析,预测的白格堰塞坝稳定性与实际情况一致,反算得到的白格堰塞湖库容量1.4×108 m3,小于实际堰塞湖库容量,这能为堰塞湖灾害的应急抢险提供响应时间。研究结果能为堰塞坝的危险性评价和堰塞湖灾害的应急处置提供有益参考。

       

      Abstract: The stability analysis of landslide dam is the focus of current research. It is very important for emergency rescue to evaluate the landslide dam stability accurately and quickly. The typical rapid stability models of landslide dam at home and abroad are summarized and compared. Then, based on the established database of landslide blocking river, the influence of landslide dam length on its stability is fully considered. A rapid evaluation model of landslide dam stability, including the parameters of dam length, dam width and reservoir capacity of the barrier lake, is proposed by using logistic regression method. Taking the case of Baige landslide-induced river blocking, the case study is carried out based on the established rapid evaluation model. The research results indicate that the comprehensive correct rate of the proposed model is 86.7%, and the false positive rate is 5.1%, which indicates that the model is safe in engineering. The predicted stability of the Baige landslide dam is consistent with the actual situation. The reservoir capacity of Baige barrier lake obtained by reverse calculation is 1.4×108m3, smaller than the actual reservoir capacity, which can provide the response time for the emergency rescue of the barrier lake disaster. The research results can provide useful reference for hazard assessment of landslide dam and emergency management of barrier lake disaster.

       

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