范宣梅, 方成勇, 戴岚欣, 等. 2022. 地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率近实时预测研究——以2022年6月1日四川芦山地震为例[J]. 工程地质学报, 30(3): 729-739. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2022-0328.
    引用本文: 范宣梅, 方成勇, 戴岚欣, 等. 2022. 地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率近实时预测研究——以2022年6月1日四川芦山地震为例[J]. 工程地质学报, 30(3): 729-739. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2022-0328.
    Fan Xuanmei, Fang Chengyong, Dai Lanxin, et al. 2022. Near real time prediction of spatial distribution probability of earthquake-induced landslides-Take the Lushan Earthquake on June 1, 2022 as an example[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 30(3): 729-739. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2022-0328.
    Citation: Fan Xuanmei, Fang Chengyong, Dai Lanxin, et al. 2022. Near real time prediction of spatial distribution probability of earthquake-induced landslides-Take the Lushan Earthquake on June 1, 2022 as an example[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 30(3): 729-739. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2022-0328.

    地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率近实时预测研究——以2022年6月1日四川芦山地震为例

    NEAR REAL TIME PREDICTION OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION PROBABILITY OF EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDES—TAKE THE LUSHAN EARTHQUAKE ON JUNE 1, 2022 AS AN EXAMPLE

    • 摘要: 2022年6月1日17时00分,继2013年芦山地震,时隔9年四川省雅安市芦山县再次发生MS6.1级地震。地震是诱发山区地质灾害的重要因素之一,往往造成大量的人员伤亡和财产损失。快速准确地获取地震诱发滑坡的空间分布范围对震后应急救援和临时安置点选取至关重要。本文基于全球地震诱发滑坡数据库,采用深度森林算法,建立了地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率近实时预测模型。将该模型应用于“6·1”芦山地震诱发滑坡的快速预测,在震后1 h内获取了滑坡空间分布概率预测结果,并第一时间到达震区进行地质灾害应急调查与模型复核。调查表明,本次地震诱发地质灾害以小型崩塌、滑坡为主,高易发区主要分布在芦山县北部和宝兴县西部的交汇区,断层上盘滑坡数量明显高于下盘。对比模型预测结果与宝兴东河流域地质灾害现场调查数据,发现模型预测准确率达80%以上,特别是相对较大规模的滑坡均发生在模型预测的高易发区,说明模型可以弥补震后现场调查与遥感数据获取时效性方面的不足,为震后应急救援提供科学支撑。

       

      Abstract: At 17:00 on June 1st, 2022, following the Lushan Earthquake in 2013, an MS6.1 earthquake occurred again in Lushan County, Ya'an City, Sichuan Province after 9 years. Earthquake is one of the most important factors that trigger geological hazards in mountainous areas, which usually leads to a large number of casualties and property losses. Rapidly and accurately obtaining the spatial distribution of earthquake-induced geological hazards is crucial for post-earthquake emergency rescue and temporary resettlement planning. Based on the global earthquake-induced landslide database, this paper employed Deep Forest algorithm to establish a near real-time prediction model for the spatial distribution probability of earthquake-induced landslides. The model was applied to the rapid prediction of geological hazards induced by the "6.1" Lushan Earthquake, and the prediction results of the spatial distribution probability of geological hazards were obtained within 1 hour after the earthquake. Meanwhile, we arrived at the seismic zone as soon as possible to conduct emergency investigation and model verification of geological hazards. The survey indicates that the geological hazards induced by this earthquake mainly consist of small collapses and landslides. The high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the intersection region of the northern Lushan County and the western Baoxing County. The number of geological hazards in the upper fault is significantly higher than that in the lower fault. Comparing the prediction results with the field survey in the basin of Baoxing Donghe, it can be concluded that the accuracy of the model is more than 80%. In particular, all large-scale landslides exactly occurred in the high-risk areas predicted by the model. The results confirm that the model enables to make up for the lack of timeliness of post-earthquake field investigation and remote sensing data acquisition and provides scientific support for emergency rescue.

       

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