朱静, 常鸣, 丁军, 齐信. 2012: 汶川震区暴雨泥石流危险范围预测研究. 工程地质学报, 20(1): 7-14.
    引用本文: 朱静, 常鸣, 丁军, 齐信. 2012: 汶川震区暴雨泥石流危险范围预测研究. 工程地质学报, 20(1): 7-14.
    ZHU Jing, CHANG Ming, DING Jun, QI Xin. 2012: PREDICTION FOR HAZARD ZONES OF RAINSTORM INDUCED DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE EPICENTERS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 20(1): 7-14.
    Citation: ZHU Jing, CHANG Ming, DING Jun, QI Xin. 2012: PREDICTION FOR HAZARD ZONES OF RAINSTORM INDUCED DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE EPICENTERS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 20(1): 7-14.

    汶川震区暴雨泥石流危险范围预测研究

    PREDICTION FOR HAZARD ZONES OF RAINSTORM INDUCED DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE EPICENTERS

    • 摘要: 汶川地震发生后,灾区暴雨泥石流活动进入一个新的活跃期。根据对北川震区2008年9月24日暴雨泥石流调查,泥石流流域中地震诱发大量滑坡导致松散物源巨大,泥石流过程的洪峰流量比通常的要大数倍,应用以往泥石流危险范围预测模型进行计算的结果与实际的误差较大。因此,需要建立适用于强震区的泥石流危险范围预测方法。本文以9.24北川暴雨泥石流为典型实例,结合野外调查,利用震后高分辨航空图像和9.24暴雨后SPOT5图像分别提取泥石流发生前流域中滑坡物源储量及发生后形成的堆积扇特征数据,应用多元回归方法建立了汶川震区泥石流危险范围预测模型,该方法可用于估算泥石流最大堆积距离和堆积宽度。验证和应用结果表明:该模型适用于强震区泥石流危险范围的预测,模型方法可为震区重建中安全地段选择和未来地震区风险管理提供重要依据。

       

      Abstract: The rainstorm induced debris flows have entered a new active period after the Wenchuan Earthquake.Debris flows have huge energy to drain a large amount of sediments and their peak discharges have several times of the normal events.Such results are based on field observation of the rainstorm induced debris flows on 24 September 2008 in the Beichuan epicenter areas.This phenomenon is due to the huge loose materials of earthquake induced landslides in the debris flow watershed.Therefore,it has obvious errors if the existing models are applied to estimate the hazardous zones of debris flows in the epicenter areas.In this way,it needs to establish an appropriate model to predict possible hazardous zones of debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake epicenter.This study selects the 9.24 rainstorm induced debris flows as a typical case.It uses the high resolution aerial photograph and SPOT5 images to extract a set of data of landslide volume in debris flow drainage basin and also geometrical dimension of depositional fans.Applying the multivariate regression analysis,a mathematical model is established to estimate the maximum runout distance and depositional width.The validation and application show that the new model is suitable for predicting debris flow hazardous zones in the Wenchuan Earthquake areas.The intent of the study will help future decision makers in the selection of safe sites during the rehabilitation process and also be used as an important basis for landslide risk-management in the rehabilitation area.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回