陈喜昌, 石胜伟, 胡时友. 2007: 斜坡地质灾害的空间预测问题. 工程地质学报, 15(2): 179-185.
    引用本文: 陈喜昌, 石胜伟, 胡时友. 2007: 斜坡地质灾害的空间预测问题. 工程地质学报, 15(2): 179-185.
    CHEN Xichang, SHI Shengwei, HU Shiyou. 2007: ON PREDICTION OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF SLOPE FAILURES AND ASSOCIATED GEO-HAZARDS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 15(2): 179-185.
    Citation: CHEN Xichang, SHI Shengwei, HU Shiyou. 2007: ON PREDICTION OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF SLOPE FAILURES AND ASSOCIATED GEO-HAZARDS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 15(2): 179-185.

    斜坡地质灾害的空间预测问题

    ON PREDICTION OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF SLOPE FAILURES AND ASSOCIATED GEO-HAZARDS

    • 摘要: 结合典型实例阐明斜坡地质灾害的空间预测是灾害防治工作的前提条件与成败关键。继而讨论了斜坡地质灾害空间预测的内涵与工作程序,以及与斜坡稳定性评价预测相关的斜坡破坏型式,斜坡结构类型,斜坡破坏的环境条件和人类活动的影响等问题。在斜坡地质灾害空间预测的定义中,笔者将预测时段仅限于工程年代之内,且前提是保持现有斜坡结构和环境条件,以及可预料的人类活动影响;预测程序是先进行斜坡稳定性预测,然后再对稳定性差或较差的坡段进行灾害危险性(度)预测。关于斜坡破坏型式的划分,一是从它的影响范围和量与质的关系看都需重视其单次规模;二是要与斜坡的成因结构类型相结合,才能对现场地质调查与研究具有指导意义。为了展示斜坡的成因结构类型对稳定性的控制意义,本文提供了长江三峡工程库区和西部大开发中总结出来的碎屑岩和副变质岩斜坡的新类型系统,并对三类土质斜坡的典型结构特征和稳定性进行了简要比较。关于环境条件对斜坡稳定性影响的量化研究,笔者更看重多个非自体(非本坡段)天然模型观测和滑坡反算的成果。同时建议在全面准确的现场调研的基础上建立确定性地质模型并应用基础学科的相关原理进行单要素的量化分析和单元分析,以便进一步揭示斜坡变形破坏机理。

       

      Abstract: This paper argues that prediction capability of spatial distributions of geologic hazards on slopes is the prerequisite and the successful key for controlling, monitoring and warning of geologic hazards in mountainous regions. It then discusses the problems on the connotation and working procedures of the prediction of slope geologic hazard, failure types of the slopes, structural types of the slopes, environment condition and effect of human action.In the definition of slope geologic hazard, the prediction period is limited within the time period of engineering guarantee quality. And the prerequisite is to keep the existing slope structures, the environment conditions, as well as the effect of foreseeable human actions no change. First the procedure is to predict slope stability, and then to predict the hazard danger for slopes with bad or potential instability. Classification of failure types of slopes should take scale at a time seriously and combine the formation cause and structural types of slope. This has the guiding meaning for geological investigation and research. To show control sense of the formation cause and structural type to stability, the paper provides new type systems of clastic rock and parametamorphic rock slopes in the Three Gorge Project in Yangtze River and western region of China, and simply compares the typical textural characteristics and stability for three types of soil slopes. About the quantified research on environment effect for slope stability, the authors value natural mode observations and landslide inverse computation of many non-self-slopes. In addition the authors suggest to establish the definite geological modes based on the accurate field investigation, and to make quantification analysis of factors at a time and cell analysis using correlation principles of basic subjects, in order to expose more the mechanism of deformation and failure of slopes.

       

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