滑坡时间预报的非平稳时间序列方法研究

RESEARCH ON LANDSLIDE TIME FORECAST BY THE UNSTABLE TIME SERIES METHOD

摘要: 本文基于边坡变形破坏的特点，对位移观测数据进行统计分析，利用非平稳时间序列理论就位移观测值建立模型进而作出预报。通过实例验证，该理论方法在边坡变形破坏时间预报中是有效可行的。

Abstract: The observed data of slope displacement is statistically analysed in accordence with the characteristics of slope deformation and destruction in this paper. A new model is set up by using the unstable time series theory to forecast the slope deformation and displacement. The theory is confirmed to be effective in practical analysis.