刘明学, 陈祥, 杨珊妮. 2014: 基于逻辑回归模型和确定性系数的崩滑流危险性区划. 工程地质学报, 22(6): 1250-1256. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2014.06.032
    引用本文: 刘明学, 陈祥, 杨珊妮. 2014: 基于逻辑回归模型和确定性系数的崩滑流危险性区划. 工程地质学报, 22(6): 1250-1256. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2014.06.032
    LIU Mingxue, CHEN Xiang, YANG Shanni. 2014: ZONATION OF LANDSLIDE RISK WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL AND CERTAINTY FACTOR. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 22(6): 1250-1256. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2014.06.032
    Citation: LIU Mingxue, CHEN Xiang, YANG Shanni. 2014: ZONATION OF LANDSLIDE RISK WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL AND CERTAINTY FACTOR. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 22(6): 1250-1256. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2014.06.032

    基于逻辑回归模型和确定性系数的崩滑流危险性区划

    ZONATION OF LANDSLIDE RISK WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL AND CERTAINTY FACTOR

    • 摘要: 崩滑流是崩塌、滑坡和泥石流地质灾害的总称。本文根据逻辑回归模型和贵州省崩滑流地质灾害发生的确定性系数CF,统计贵州省内崩滑流发生概率与其影响因子之间的函数关系; 并利用GIS技术编制贵州省崩滑流地质灾害危险性区划图。首先根据影响因子子集中已发崩滑流灾害面积和影响因子子集面积来计算崩滑流地质灾害发生的确定性系数CF; 其次将灾害是否发生作为因变量,影响因子子集发生崩滑流地质灾害的确定性系数CF作为自变量,应用逻辑回归模型统计分析它们之间的函数关系; 然后利用GIS技术计算研究区内各独立属性单元发生崩滑流地质灾害的概率p,按p值10等分标准将研究区划分为10个危险性等级区,并绘制贵州省崩滑流地质灾害危险性区划图; 最后用已发崩滑流地质灾害的分布数据来检验危险性区划的效果。研究结果表明:本文根据逻辑回归模型和崩滑流地质灾害发生的确定性系数CF,将贵州省分为Ⅰ~Ⅹ的10个崩滑流地质灾害危险性等级区与实际情况基本符合,能够良好地反映贵州省境内发生崩滑流地质灾害的难易程度。

       

      Abstract: This paper aims at finding out the functional relationship between landslide and impact factors, using statistics analysis under logistic regression model and certainty factor. It tries to draw the block map of the hazard zonation according to the level of risk of landslide occurrence in Guizhou Province using GIS technology. First, a calculation of the certainty factor of landslide occurrence is done according to the area of occurred disasters in impact factor subset and the area of impact factor subset. Secondly, the possibility of landslide occurrence is defined as dependent variable. The certainty factor of occurring disaster in subset is defined as independent variable. Then, an analysis is done to find out the functional relationship between them under logistic regression model. Thirdly, a calculation of the probability of landslide occurrence p is initiated. It tries to divide the research area into 10 risk level sub-areas according to the p result with the aim to draw block map of the hazard zonation of landslide. Finally, an evaluation on the hazard zonation of landslide is carried out. The result shows that the hazard zonation method, based on logistic regression model and certainty factor for landslide, is effective.

       

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