基于库室模型的近地表放射性废物处置场核素迁移不确定性研究

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF NUCLIDE MIGRATION IN SURFACE RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL SITES BASED ON COMPARTMENT MODEL

摘要: 放射性废物处置场安全评价时空尺度大，涉及系统复杂，核素迁移计算不可避免地存在不确定性，不确定性的处理对安全评价结果至关重要。本文以某低中放固体废物处置场为例，使用Ecolego软件进行参数不确定性分析，计算处置场关闭后核素在地下水中的迁移过程以及对公众造成的影响。得到该实例模型主要受弥散度影响，其次为密度、分配系数，且核素浓度与这些参数呈负相关关系。

Abstract: The safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal site involves a large space-time scale and complex systems. The calculation of nuclide migration inevitably has uncertainty. The treatment of uncertainty plays a key role in safety assessment results. This paper takes a low and medium level solid waste disposal site as an example. We used Ecolego program to analyze the uncertainty of parameters, and calculated the process of nuclide migration in groundwater and its impact on public after the disposal site closing. The results show that the model is mainly affected by dispersion, followed by density and distribution coefficient. The nuclide concentration is negatively correlated with these parameters.