李可飞, 许领, 赵腾远, 等. 2023. 基于Johnson分布体系黄土滑坡影响范围的概率预测[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(2): 493-501. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-636.
    引用本文: 李可飞, 许领, 赵腾远, 等. 2023. 基于Johnson分布体系黄土滑坡影响范围的概率预测[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(2): 493-501. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-636.
    Li Kefei, Xu Ling, Zhao Tengyuan, et al. 2023. Probabilistic prediction of loess landslide impact range using Johnson's system[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(2): 493-501. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-636.
    Citation: Li Kefei, Xu Ling, Zhao Tengyuan, et al. 2023. Probabilistic prediction of loess landslide impact range using Johnson's system[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(2): 493-501. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-636.

    基于Johnson分布体系黄土滑坡影响范围的概率预测

    PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF LOESS LANDSLIDE IMPACT RANGE USING JOHNSON'S SYSTEM

    • 摘要: 通过在甘肃省天水市进行大量的现场调查,收集已经发生的黄土滑坡数据并建立数据库,利用Johnson分布体系建立了多维滑坡变量模型并预测潜在滑坡发生后的堆积区滑体长度、滑坡体的面积和滑坡体的宽度。通过对比预测结果与验证组中滑坡体真实数据发现预测模型具有较好的精准度,以预测结果90%置信区间上边界作为影响范围的安全值,推导出研究区域内潜在黄土滑坡影响范围的预测公式,并以研究区域以外的同类型黄土滑坡数据加以验证发现预测公式对天水市内其他区域同类型的黄土滑坡的评估具有一定的适用性。预测公式中只有不稳定边坡高度作为自变量,这对现场快速评估不稳定黄土潜在滑坡危害、影响范围提供了极大便利。

       

      Abstract: After having collected a large number of loess landslides data in Tianshui City,Gansu Province through extensive site investigation,we constructed a multivariate probability distribution model for loess landslide data via Johnson's system of distribution. We used the model to predict the width,length,and area of potential slides in an unstable loess slope. The results show that the prediction from the proposed model is reasonably accurate. The upper boundary of the 90% confidence interval of the prediction results is used as the safety value of the impact range to derive the potential impact of the unstable loess slope in the survey area. After having verified with the same type of loess landslide data outside the survey area,it is found that the prediction formula has certain applicability to the evaluation of the same type of loess landslide in other areas in Tianshui City. Only the height of the unstable slope in the prediction formula is used as independent variables,which provides a great convenience for rapid on-site assessment of the hazard and impact range of unstable loess slopes. The proposed method therefore provides a vehicle for quantifying the impact of unstable loess slopes,and hence offers basis for quantitative evaluation of loess slope hazards in the region of Tianshui City.

       

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