李晴文, 裴华富, 宋怀博, 等. 2023. 基于熵权法优化组合的PSO-SVR-NGM边坡位移预测[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(3): 949-958. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0036.
    引用本文: 李晴文, 裴华富, 宋怀博, 等. 2023. 基于熵权法优化组合的PSO-SVR-NGM边坡位移预测[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(3): 949-958. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0036.
    Li Qingwen, Pei Huafu, Song Huaibo, et al. 2023. Prediction of slope displacement based on PSO-SVR-NGM combined with entropy weight method[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(3): 949-958. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0036.
    Citation: Li Qingwen, Pei Huafu, Song Huaibo, et al. 2023. Prediction of slope displacement based on PSO-SVR-NGM combined with entropy weight method[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(3): 949-958. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0036.

    基于熵权法优化组合的PSO-SVR-NGM边坡位移预测

    PREDICTION OF SLOPE DISPLACEMENT BASED ON PSO-SVR-NGM COMBINED WITH ENTROPY WEIGHT METHOD

    • 摘要: 基于边坡监测数据建立数学模型,是边坡变形和稳定性分析的重要方法。但是单一预测模型的形式和应用范围具有一定的确定性,不同模型对数据的利用程度也有所差别,往往不能充分运用已知信息,导致模型精度不高,适用性不强。针对单一预测模型存在的问题,提出一种基于熵权法的PSO-SVR-NGM优化组合模型。该模型结合高精度变权缓冲NGM(1,1,k,c)模型和PSO-SVR模型,能够减小单一预测模型的误差,大幅度提高预测精度。首先通过引入变权缓冲算子λ和背景值权重系数ηκ改进无偏NGM(1,1,k,c)模型,构建新的3参数变权缓冲NGM(1,1,k,c)模型。结合最大灰色关联度和最小平均相对拟合误差重新构造粒子群算法的适应度函数,利用改进的粒子群算法对提出的变权缓冲模型进行搜索寻优,确定最佳的参数组合。然后通过熵权法对改进的变权缓冲NGM(1,1,k,c)模型和PSO-SVR模型进行赋权建立优化组合模型。最后,将该组合模型应用于3个不同变形特征的边坡工程中,并与其他单一模型进行对比分析。结果表明,相对于单一模型,本文所提出的组合模型的拟合和预测误差较小,与原始位移数据的相关性较好,能够更真实地反映边坡变形规律,具有较强的工程适应性。同时组合模型的提出与发展也促进了单一模型的优化改进,为解决实际工程问题提供了良好的思路。

       

      Abstract: The establishment of mathematical model based on slope monitoring data is an important method for slope deformation and stability analysis. Grey prediction, support vector machine(SVM) and related improvement models are the hot spots in slope deformation prediction. However, the form and application scope of single prediction model limit the utilization of monitoring data, resulting in low model accuracy and poor applicability. On the one hand, the inherent defects of the grey prediction model are difficult to be eliminated, and the dependence on historical data is strong, which leads to this model not suitable for many slope engineering. Although the SVM model shows great advantages in nonlinear fitting, its prediction accuracy for future trends is low. Aiming at the large error of a single prediction model, we propose an optimally combined PSO-SVR-NGM model based on the entropy weight method. The new model combines the high-precision variable-weight buffer NGM(1, 1, k, c)model and the PSO-SVR model. It can make up for the shortcomings of the single prediction model and improve prediction accuracy. We first improve the unbiased NGM(1, 1, k, c)model, through introducing the variable weight buffer operator λ and the background value weight coefficients η, κ to construct a new three-parameter variable weight buffer NGM(1, 1, k, c)model. And we use the improved particle swarm algorithm(PSO)to search and determine the best parameter combination, so that it can meet the requirements of fitting and prediction accuracy at the same time. The improved PSO integrates the maximum grey correlation degree and the minimum average relative error to reconstruct its fitness function. The support vector regression(SVR) is a kind of SVM. We also use PSO to search the best parameters of SVR model to achieve better modeling results. After obtaining these two high-precision models, we use the entropy method to weight the improved variable weight buffer NGM(1, 1, k, c)model and PSO-SVR model to establish a combined model. We use three slope projects with different deformation characteristics to verify the effectiveness of the combined model, by calculating and comparing average relative error(MRE), root mean square error(RMSE) and coefficient of determination(R2) of single model and combined model. The results show that, in contrast with single prediction model, the proposed combined model has lower error, higher fitting and prediction accuracy, better correlation with the original displacement data, can more truly reflect the slope deformation law, which make it has stronger engineering applicability. It is also found that the combined model combines the advantages of these single models, and make full use of the known monitoring information. Through a lot of research, we find that the combined model has strong applicability to displacement data with certain trend, which may be related to the single model selected. With the improvement of data processing technology and the optimization of models, the combined prediction model that considering various influencing factors of slope deformation will become the research direction in the future. At the same time, we find that the proposal and development of the combined model also promote the optimization and improvement of the single model, they complement each other and provide good ideas for solving practical landslide engineering problems.

       

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