铜黄公路某滑坡安全监测及预测研究
SAFETY MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF AN OLD LANDSLIDE SITE ON TONG-HUANG HIGHWAY
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摘要: 铜黄公路全长93.9km,其中遇到的各种滑坡30余处。为了研究这些滑坡的治理效果,对其变形与稳定进行了检测。以川口滑坡检测为例,运用灰色理论建立铜黄滑坡安全监控的GM(2,1)模型,其中非等时距位移序列采用拉格朗日插值函数转变为等时距序列。采用非等时距GM(2,1)和GM(1,1)模型对铜黄公路川口滑坡观测点进行安全预测。非等时距GM(2,1)模型预测滑坡变形精度总体较GM(1,1)模型高。由预测结果可见,治理后该滑坡是稳定的,预测结果和实际吻合良好。Abstract: The GM(2,1) model for safety inspection and forecasting of a landsliding site is set up based on Gray theory. The anisochronous displacement is changed to the isochronous serial with Lagrange function. This model is used to the Chuang-Kou landslide observation site in Tong-Huang expressway. The results show that the GM(2, 1) model has higher forecasting precision than the GM(1, 1). The study shows that the landslide is safe after completion of treatment. This result agrees well with the actual situation.
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