DYNAMIC PREDICTION OF SPRING FLOW IN KARST MOUNTAIN AREA BASED ON SARIMA MODEL

Natural outcrop of groundwater in karst mountainous countryside is an important water supply source. Its flow dynamic changes in the degree of security of water supply play a decisive role. This paper takes Yantang springs as an example and analyzes the spring flow rate. Using the change law of the SARIMA model, it established a fitting prediction model. The analysis results show that the Yantang springs flow has seasonal changes over the years. Fitting and predicted results show that SARIMA model is applicable to short-term prediction with high accuracy. But its precision is reduced for long-term forecast. Between the measured value, it is still in the 95% of the predicted range, which indicates that the model can be used for short-term forecast. The long-term predicted results can provide reference for natural outcrop of groundwater development and utilization.