HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF COLLAPSE USING EW-AHP AND UNASCERTAINED MEASURE THEORY

Hazard assessment and prediction are the important contents of prevention and control of disasters. This paper attempts to solve the shortcomings of the method for determining the weight of indicators in traditional hazard assessment and the uncertainty of influencing factors. It takes the collapses in Wenchuan-Lixian highway of G4217 line as an example. Twelve factors including slope and aspect are selected as indicators of collapse hazard assessment. Hazard grading standards are established according to its unique geological environment conditions. The entropy weight method and analytical hierarchy process are coupled to determine the weights of the factors affecting collapse. A comprehensive evaluation model is established using EW-AHP and unascertained measure theory. Hazard assessment is carried out for 20 collapses in the study area and compared with the results of the field survey and assessment results using EW. Results show that the assessment results of the model are more in line with the actual situation and assessment method is reasonable and effective. It can provide a new idea for the prediction of the hazard of collapse in the future.