EARLY-WARNING MODEL OF REGIONAL GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS BASED ON METEOROLOGICAL FACTOR IN QINGCHUAN COUNTY, SICHUAN PROVINCE

Rainfall is one of the important factors that induce geo-hazards. The early warning of regional geo-hazards based on the meteorological factor started in 2003, had achieved good results. The current early warning of regional geo-hazards are step by step from the "danger warning" to "risk warning". Early-warning model study of regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor is of great significance. This paper put forward the general model of early warning for regional geo-hazards risk based on the meteorological factor, and took a case study of Qingchuan County, Sichuan Province. Finally, the effect of the early warning was verified with a typical example. (1)The regional geo-hazards risk warning index(R)could be generalized as the product of geo-hazards potentiality parameter(Q), rainfall trigger factor(T) and vulnerability index(V). The calculation formulas of the three index(Q, T, V)were given respectively. (2)The early warning model of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was established in Qingchuan County. According to the early warning index of regional geo-hazards, the principle dividing warning level was given. When two items of Q, T and V reached a high level(0.8) and one item reached a relative high level(0.6), it was a red alert; When two items of Q, T and V reached a relative high level(0.6) and one item reached a middle level(0.3), it was a orange alert; When one item of Q, T and V reached a relatively high level(0.6), and two items reached a middle level(0.3), it was a yellow alert. (3)Taking 26 June, 2018 as a typical example, the early warning of regional geo-hazards risk based on meteorological factor was simulated. With the actual geo-hazards, the warning effect was verified. The results showed that 94.1% of the geo-hazards were located in the warning area.