Song Yufei, Fan Wen, Li Jun, et al. 2020. Risk assessment of property loss caused by unstable slopes under different rainfall conditions—A case study of Xinglong town of Zhenba county[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 28(2): 401-411. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-255.
    Citation: Song Yufei, Fan Wen, Li Jun, et al. 2020. Risk assessment of property loss caused by unstable slopes under different rainfall conditions—A case study of Xinglong town of Zhenba county[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 28(2): 401-411. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-255.

    RISK ASSESSMENT OF PROPERTY LOSS CAUSED BY UNSTABLE SLOPES UNDER DIFFERENT RAINFALL CONDITIONS—A CASE STUDY OF XINGLONG TOWN OF ZHENBA COUNTY

    • Shallow landslide is a common geological hazard in Qinba mountain area. In recent years, the amount of unstable slopes is increasing because of the urbanization. The unstable slope is one of the most serious threatens to the urbanization, because it is very easy changed into shallow landslide with rainfall. It is an urgent to predict the property loss risk caused by unstable slope under different rainfall condition. This paper takes the unstable slopes of Xinglong town as research objective, and assesses the property loss of the buildings affected by the unstable slopes. Firstly, we collect the rainfall data of Xinglong town and fitting these data using Pearson Ⅲ curve to predict the rainfall intensity at different recurrence periods, and then combine rainfall infiltration model and Mote-Carlo method to calculate the probability of unstable slopes changing into landslides under different rainfall conditions. After that, we calculate the vulnerability and the value of objects affected by unstable slopes by means of vulnerability model combined with survey and exploration data. At the end, we use the risk assessment formula proposed by Fell in 2005 to calculate the property loss risk under different rainfall conditions. The results show the following three findings. (1) 245 buildings are affected by unstable slopes, account for 30.4% of the total buildings in Xinglong town. (2) The risk value of the buildings affected by unstable slopes under the rainfall conditions of no rainfall, 65.57mm ·d-1, 72.88mm ·d-1, 85.91mm ·d-1 are 0.228, 0.697, 1.225 and 1.505 million yuan, respectively. (3) More than 55% of the loss is caused by the unstable slopes 1-2, 2-6, 3-5 and 4-3, and the loss caused by these four unstable slopes under the rainfall conditions of no rainfall is 65.57mm ·d-1, 72.88mm ·d-1, 85.91mm ·d-1 over the total loss are 88.33%, 62.9%, 58.64% and 57.54%, respectively.
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