UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF NUCLIDE MIGRATION IN SURFACE RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL SITES BASED ON COMPARTMENT MODEL

The safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal site involves a large space-time scale and complex systems. The calculation of nuclide migration inevitably has uncertainty. The treatment of uncertainty plays a key role in safety assessment results. This paper takes a low and medium level solid waste disposal site as an example. We used Ecolego program to analyze the uncertainty of parameters, and calculated the process of nuclide migration in groundwater and its impact on public after the disposal site closing. The results show that the model is mainly affected by dispersion, followed by density and distribution coefficient. The nuclide concentration is negatively correlated with these parameters.