STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF RAPID EVALUATION MODEL OF LANDSLIDE DAM STABILITY

The stability analysis of landslide dam is the focus of current research. It is very important for emergency rescue to evaluate the landslide dam stability accurately and quickly. The typical rapid stability models of landslide dam at home and abroad are summarized and compared. Then, based on the established database of landslide blocking river, the influence of landslide dam length on its stability is fully considered. A rapid evaluation model of landslide dam stability, including the parameters of dam length, dam width and reservoir capacity of the barrier lake, is proposed by using logistic regression method. Taking the case of Baige landslide-induced river blocking, the case study is carried out based on the established rapid evaluation model. The research results indicate that the comprehensive correct rate of the proposed model is 86.7%, and the false positive rate is 5.1%, which indicates that the model is safe in engineering. The predicted stability of the Baige landslide dam is consistent with the actual situation. The reservoir capacity of Baige barrier lake obtained by reverse calculation is 1.4×10⁸m³, smaller than the actual reservoir capacity, which can provide the response time for the emergency rescue of the barrier lake disaster. The research results can provide useful reference for hazard assessment of landslide dam and emergency management of barrier lake disaster.