ON PREDICTION OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF SLOPE FAILURES AND ASSOCIATED GEO-HAZARDS

This paper argues that prediction capability of spatial distributions of geologic hazards on slopes is the prerequisite and the successful key for controlling, monitoring and warning of geologic hazards in mountainous regions. It then discusses the problems on the connotation and working procedures of the prediction of slope geologic hazard, failure types of the slopes, structural types of the slopes, environment condition and effect of human action.In the definition of slope geologic hazard, the prediction period is limited within the time period of engineering guarantee quality. And the prerequisite is to keep the existing slope structures, the environment conditions, as well as the effect of foreseeable human actions no change. First the procedure is to predict slope stability, and then to predict the hazard danger for slopes with bad or potential instability. Classification of failure types of slopes should take scale at a time seriously and combine the formation cause and structural types of slope. This has the guiding meaning for geological investigation and research. To show control sense of the formation cause and structural type to stability, the paper provides new type systems of clastic rock and parametamorphic rock slopes in the Three Gorge Project in Yangtze River and western region of China, and simply compares the typical textural characteristics and stability for three types of soil slopes. About the quantified research on environment effect for slope stability, the authors value natural mode observations and landslide inverse computation of many non-self-slopes. In addition the authors suggest to establish the definite geological modes based on the accurate field investigation, and to make quantification analysis of factors at a time and cell analysis using correlation principles of basic subjects, in order to expose more the mechanism of deformation and failure of slopes.