ZONATION OF LANDSLIDE RISK WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL AND CERTAINTY FACTOR

This paper aims at finding out the functional relationship between landslide and impact factors, using statistics analysis under logistic regression model and certainty factor. It tries to draw the block map of the hazard zonation according to the level of risk of landslide occurrence in Guizhou Province using GIS technology. First, a calculation of the certainty factor of landslide occurrence is done according to the area of occurred disasters in impact factor subset and the area of impact factor subset. Secondly, the possibility of landslide occurrence is defined as dependent variable. The certainty factor of occurring disaster in subset is defined as independent variable. Then, an analysis is done to find out the functional relationship between them under logistic regression model. Thirdly, a calculation of the probability of landslide occurrence p is initiated. It tries to divide the research area into 10 risk level sub-areas according to the p result with the aim to draw block map of the hazard zonation of landslide. Finally, an evaluation on the hazard zonation of landslide is carried out. The result shows that the hazard zonation method, based on logistic regression model and certainty factor for landslide, is effective.