STUDY ON PREDICTION METHOD OF LANDSLIDES MOVEMENT DISTANCES BASED ON KINEMATIC

In this paper, based on taking full account of the landslide site features its own characteristics, then derived prediction formula of landslide movement distance based on kinematics, and collected 44 cases of typical rainfall landslide basic data as sample to carry out nonlinear fitting about this model with two methods of the results and processes. Finally, making use of landslide example to carry out comparative analysis and suitability testing with model. The result shows: The result is well and its correlation coefficients were 0.926 and 0.928 after fitting about the formula result and actual result, the distance of Hongtaoshan landslide is 83.16m using derived theoretical formula, which is smaller than the actual sliding distance that is 89.37m, which the absolute error is 6.21m, the relative error is 6.95%,after result fitting the value of landslide distance is 6.07m smaller than actual and the relative error is 6.80%.therefore after process fitting is 3.52m, the relative error is 3.94%.It showed the formula have a excellent applicability after fitting. The research results provides a new way about distance prediction of landslide movement.