PREDICTION AND EARLY WARNING OF CANGZHOU LAND SUBSIDENCE DISASTER

This paper simulates and evaluates the influence of groundwater exploitation on land subsidence in Cangzhou area, and provides decision basis for municipal planning and groundwater resources management. On the basis of Biot's consolidation theory, it establishes a three-dimensional full coupling mathematic model of groundwater exploitation and land subsidence in Cangzhou. On the basis of the identification and verification of the model, it simulates the trend of land subsidence under the superposition of current situation of groundwater exploitation from December 31, 2010 to December 31, 2025. It partitions the land subsidence according to the rate of land subsidence. The results show that the maximum cumulative land subsidence in Cangzhou area is 466.82 mm, and the minimum cumulative land subsidence is 241.54 mm. Most areas are four or five warning areas. Only Suning County is the three warning area.