RESEARCH AND PREDICTION OF ROCK BURST CRITERION BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ENGINEERING CASES

It is always a difficult problem to accurately predict the possibility and severity of rock burst in high geostress area. After years of research, domestic and foreign scholars have proposed a variety of rock burst criteria based on the formation mechanism and occurrence conditions of rock burst. However, these criteria are based solely on a single factor or a single engineering case that causes rock burst, analyzing the stress of surrounding rock and the rock burst tendency index when rock burst occurs, and then dividing the rock burst level. This article collected and categorized the occurrence of 203 rock burst cases, of which 36 cases collected more comprehensive rock mechanics parameters and rock burst orientation indexes. By adapting a variety of rock burst criterion index to forecast and statistically analyze the level of rock burst in engineering case and comparing it with the actual rock burst, it finds that stress criterion of σ_θmax/σ_c index and energy criterion of W_et index is highly accurate, up to 88.9%, and the stress criterion of σ₁/σ_c target accuracy is low, only 44.4%. This paper obtains the probability map of rock burst degree grade accuracy by different criteria of rockburst case. The analysis results can provide a reference for effective prediction of rock burst in high ground stress region.