ASSESSMENT OF THE SUSCEPTIBILITY TO GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS IN THE MANAS RIVER BASIN BASED ON THE COUPLED INFORMATION VALUE-LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL

The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang have many geological disasters. This paper takes this area as the study area. It analyze the respective advantages and limitations of the information model and logistic regression model in the evaluation of the susceptibility to geological disasters. It explores and proposes the information-logistics model. Evaluation influencing factors include elevation, terrain relief, slope, slope aspect, terrain wetness index(TWI), lithology, water system, fault, and land use type. This study takes 355 geological disaster points in the whole region as sample data and analyses the characteristics of evaluation factors. Finally, the susceptibility of geological disasters is evaluated in the Manas River Basin through the ArcGIS platform. The evaluation results show that the high-risk area and the high-risk area are concentrated in the low-mountain and hilly areas in the southern part of the basin. The high-prone zone covers an area of 1, 760 square kilometers, 7.98% of the total area of the study area. The low-risk area covers an area of 2, 200 square kilometers, 9.97% of the total area of the study area. The evaluation accuracy is as high as 91.3%. These results can provide important reference for local geological disaster prevention and national land space planning.