EVALUATION OF LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY IN ILI VALLEY, XINJIANG BASED ON THE COUPLING OF WOE MODEL AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION

Ili is located in the inland hinterland of Central Asia. It has many high mountains and mountains,complex natural geographical conditions and geological environment,frequent geological disasters(especially landslides),which seriously affect the normal production and life of the region. It is necessary to carry out landslide geological disaster susceptibility assessment. Based on the results of the previous work,combined with the conditions affecting landslides in the area,nine factors were selected as evaluation factors,including elevation,slope,temperature,rainfall,topographic moisture index,engineering geological rock group,distance from road,distance from water system and distance from fault,and the vulnerability evaluation of landslides in Ili area was carried out by combining GIS and statistics by using the coupling model of evidence weight and logistic. The results show that the nine factors selected have a strong correlation on the occurrence of landslide,and have a good evaluation effect on the basis of the evidence weight model and the logistic regression model. After evaluation,it was concluded that the area of extremely high risk of geological disasters and high prone areas accounted for 25.74% of the total area of the whole area,mainly distributed in medium and low hilly areas. According to logistic regression calculations,the occurrence of landslides in this area is most closely related to rivers,human engineering activities and slope. After the ROC curve test,the evaluation accuracy of the coupling model is as high as 89.7%(AUC=0.897),and the vulnerability evaluation results obtained by the proposed model are more accurate and reasonable and in line with the actual situation,which can provide an important reference for the prevention and treatment of geological disasters in this region.