EVALUATION OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD SUSCEPTIBILITY IN EMIN COUNTY, XINJIANG BASED ON DETERMINISTIC COEFFICIENT AND INFORMATION COUPLING MODEL

Geological disasters have already caused great threats to human life and property safety and natural environment. Reasonable and accurate evaluation of the vulnerability has important practical significance for disaster prevention and reduction. At present, the certainty factor model coupled with information content model has become a research hotspot. However, relatively few studies are available in evaluating the certainty factor. Based on the geological environment background of Emin County, combined with the field geological survey and the selection principle of evaluation factors, this paper selects 9 evaluation indexes. On the basis of analyzing the distribution and correlation of geological hazards development of each evaluation factor, they include elevation, slope, slope direction, ground curvature, engineering geological rock group, distance from fault, distance from road, distance from water system and rainfall. The certainty factor model, the information model and the coupling model of the cetainty factor and the information are used to evaluate the susceptibility of geo-hazards in Emin County. The results show that the rationality and accuracy of the coupled model are better than those of the two single models. The AUC value of the cetainty factor and information coupled model is as high as 0.862. The coupling model divides the prone areas into: low-prone area 42.39%, moderately prone area 28.76%, high-prone area 23.62%, and extremely high prone area 5.23%, respectively. The extremely high and high-prone areas were mainly distributed in the areas with large cutting depth, steep slope on both sides of the ditch, exposed bedrock, joint development, severe weathering, and heavy rainfall. The density of disaster sites reached 6.62 per 100 km² and 5.11 per 100 km², respectively. The results of vulnerability evaluation and analysis in Emin County obtained by coupling model can provide technical reference for geological hazard monitoring, early warning and prevention planning in this area.