SUSCEPTIBILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN XINJIANG BASED ON EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Xinjiang is the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Its geological hazard-prone environmental conditions differ significantly from those of the central and eastern regions of China, making it one of the provinces with severe geological hazard impact in the country. This article focuses on the large area and special geological hazard-prone environmental conditions of Xinjiang, divides the whole region into four areas for the assessment of hazard susceptibility and danger. Evaluation indicators such as local elevation difference, slope, terrain type, engineering geology lithology, average temperature, average rainfall, NDVI, and snowline distribution were selected, and an evidence weight model is used to evaluate the hazard susceptibility of the region. Based on the assessment of hazard susceptibility, the maximum rainfall is added as a geological hazard danger-inducing factor. The hazard danger of the entire region is evaluated through the expert scoring matrix method. The research results show that the entire region is divided into eight high susceptibility and extremely high hazard geological disaster-prone areas, mainly distributed in the western part of the Junggar Mountain, Altai Mountain, Ili Valley Mountainous Area, the northern foothills of Tianshan Mountains, Tuha Basin, the southern foothills of Tianshan Mountains, Western Tianshan Mountains in southern Xinjiang, Western Kunlun Mountains, and Eastern Kunlun Mountains, etc. Based on the sample data of geological disaster points in the whole region, it is verified that 96.16% of the disaster points are distributed in high, medium, and low susceptibility areas. Based on the sample data of 336 geological disasters that occurred in Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022,it was verified that 326 geological disasters are distributed in extremely high, high and medium danger areas, accounting for a ratio of 97.02%. The research results can provide a scientific basis for minimizing geological hazard risks to the greatest extent in Xinjiang, and also provide important technical references for other provincial-level regions to carry out susceptibility and risk assessments of geological disasters.