PREDICTION OF GROUND SETTLEMENT INDUCED DUE TO CHANGES IN ENGINEERING ENVIRONENT IN SHANGHAI

Ground subsidence is one of the common geological disasters that have often been reported. From 1990s, the engineering environmental changes in Shanghai have become a new cause of inducing ground subsidence. There are many factors affecting the process of ground subsidence induced by external loadings. Such process cannot be explicitly presented with simple mathematical expressions, but it is not totally unknown like a black box, in terms of the internal structure, parameters, and characteristics. Therefore, the grey theory can be applied to the prediction of the ground subsidence. According to the characteristic of unequal time-interval of monitoring and observation, the unequal time-interval grey model GM (1, 1) is used to predict the subsidence of a certain high-rising building in the Lujiazui area of Shanghai and the predicted result is compared with the monitored data. The subsidence of the indoor model test is also predicted with this theory. The observed data are compared with the predicted data with the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The result indicates that the unequal time-interval GM (1, 1) is reasonable and accurate to predict the ground subsidence induced by engineering works.