PROBABILITISTIC ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL GROUND OFFSET ALONG STRIKE-SLIP ENGINEERING ACTIVE FAULT

The current anti-offset design usually adopts the deterministic method of the maximum outburst offset on the fault, which cannot meet requirements of risk design for prevention of earthquake disasters. By combining the location of the maximum offset, the distribution of the offset along two sides of the maximum offset, and the recurrence model of strong earthquakes pertaining to the ground offset, authors introduced a method of probabilistic assessment to evaluate potential ground offset along the strike-slip active fault. Taking the Songlinkou-Qianning segment on Xianshuihe strike-slip fault zone as an example, the quantitative evaluation of the risk of potential offset in future 100a was conducted. The potential offsets along the active fault were assessed under different exceeding probabilistic levels. Such results could provide scientific guidelines for the risk assessment of the anti-offset of linear engineering structures across the active fault.