PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION ON THE RELIABILITY OF QUANTITATIVE PREDICTION CONCLUSIONS

In this paper, a new research field of engineering geology is put forward on the reliability analysis of quantitive prediction conclusions. The uncertainty, including its source, classification and finding, are discussed. A set of methods for discriminating the significance of prediction conclusions using only one prediction method and the reliability using several methods are set up. Application of these methods to prediction of collapse size of expansive soil slope shows that the accuracy of prediction is improved obviously by using this set of discrimination methods.